AXTI

Compound-semi wafer pure-play (InP / GaAs) levered to AI optical connectivity. Q2 2026 guide flipped to surprise profit ($0.06-0.08 vs Street -$0.01) on a $100M+ InP backlog. $632.5M raise closed at $64.25 funds Tongmei capacity doubling. Sell-side PTs ($72-90) sit below spot.

• •Q2 2026 — Guide flipped to surprise profit: EPS $0.06–0.08 vs Street -$0.01, attributed to AI optical-connectivity demand for InP wafers
• •2026 — $100M+ InP backlog disclosed, tied to AI optical-connectivity programs (specific customers not named in the source)
• •2026 — $632.5M registered raise closed at $64.25/share. Use of proceeds: doubling InP wafer capacity at the Tongmei (China JV) plant. Stock has run well above the raise price post-close — direction-of-flow worth watching as participants in the deal mark to market
• •2026 — Tradr launched AXTX, a 2x long single-stock ETF tracking AXTI directly. Mechanical flows now amplify single-day moves both ways — flow variable on top of the fundamentals story
• •Sell-side PTs (yfinance consensus, n=4): Northland $90, Wedbush $80, B. Riley $72, mean $87.75. Spot has run above all three — momentum is ahead of the fundamentals story per the sell-side. PTs may catch up if Q3/Q4 prints confirm the cycle
• •Snapshot 2026-05-06: stock ran from a $45 low to $111+ peak; pulled into the mid-$90s. Watch for capacity-doubling commentary on the next call (timing of incremental InP volume vs current backlog)
• •Setup tension: real catalysts (profit flip + $100M backlog + funded capacity) sit alongside two flow-amplifiers (post-raise float + AXTX 2x ETF). Until the next print confirms the cycle, technical moves will be flow-driven and noisier than fundamentals justify