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Investigación de profundidad del escritorio QuantAbundancia. Metodología, deep dives en burbujas, y análisis de flujo de capital respaldado por los datos en vivo de la plataforma.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund filed its Q1 2026 13F on May 18 — 42 positions, $13.68B notional, with $8.46B in puts hitting SMH, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, ORCL, ASML. The author of the canonical AGI-imminence essay just took the largest chip-short stack of any AI-thematic fund. The long side tripled SanDisk, kept Bloom Energy as the anchor, and held all nine Bitcoin-miner-to-HPC names. Every position mapped onto the QuantAbundancia bubble taxonomy.
President Trump's two OGE Form 278-T filings disclosed 3,711 securities transactions executed Jan 6 → Mar 30, 2026, cumulative value $220M–$750M. Every confirmed buy and sell mapped onto the QuantAbundancia bubble taxonomy — semis, AI hardware, crypto, enterprise SaaS down 30-45% YTD, and three Mag-7 names sold in size on a single February day.
Seven of the most-watched institutional portfolios filed Q1 2026 13Fs this week. Every top holding mapped onto the QuantAbundancia bubble taxonomy — where the smart money is clustered, where it diverges, and which AI bottlenecks the tape actually owns.
VST, CEG, NRG, GEV, ETR, SO, AEP — the IPPs and utilities feeding hyperscaler AI campuses. ~0.55 residualized correlation. Pure exposure to GW-scale PPAs, not to NVDA's margin trajectory.
SNDK, LITE, INTC, COHR, BE — the original 2026-05-09 read on Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, based on five past trades surfaced by an aggregator. Superseded by the Q1 2026 13F-HR which discloses 42 positions and a $8.5B chip-short pivot. See the linked update for current portfolio.
Editorial taxonomies tell you what stocks SHOULD trade together. Correlation tells you what stocks ACTUALLY trade together. Most of the time, those are different lists.
MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META, ORCL look like an AI capex bloc. The data says no. Raw correlation 0.65 collapses to ~0.05 under residualization. SPY in a costume.
QBTS, RGTI, IONQ, ARQQ, QUBT — five pre-revenue stocks with the highest residualized correlation in the AI taxonomy. Why they trade as one, and how to size the bet.
Twelve editorial bubbles in the AI supercycle. We measured all of them with 252-day residualized correlations. Half are real. Half are SPY in a costume.
The market beta hidden in 'AI bubbles' makes correlation matrices useless until you strip it. Worked example: why Hyperscalers fail the test and Quantum passes.
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