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Leopold Aschenbrenner
Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-supercycle hedge fund (Situational Awareness LP, San Francisco), launched late 2024 after the founder left OpenAI's Superalignment team. Aschenbrenner (25) wrote the canonical AGI-imminence essay "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"; the book is the financial expression of that thesis. Q1 2026 13F-HR documents a complete tactical pivot: 42 positions, $13.68B total notional (2.5× the Q4 2025 book). The portfolio is now 62% SHORT via $8.46B in puts hitting the entire chip stack — SMH the basket itself ($2.04B), NVDA ($1.57B), AMD ($969M), AVGO ($1.01B), ORCL ($1.07B), ASML ($494M), plus straddles on MU and TSM. The long side held the AI-infrastructure-bottleneck thesis: Bloom Energy ($879M anchor + $55M calls), SanDisk tripled to $1.11B aggregate (long+calls), CoreWeave ~$700M, all nine BTC-miners-to-HPC names retained (CORZ $389M, IREN $401M, APLD $320M, RIOT $142M, CLSK $104M, BITF, BTDR, HIVE, CIFR-out). Three new names this quarter: SHAZ (SharonAI), TE (T1 Energy), HIVE. Activist tier: CORZ 13D filed 2025-08-19 at 5.8%, amended 2025-10-14 to 9.4% — position survives at $389M, signal of conviction in the BTC-miner-to-GPU-datacenter conversion. The pivot reads as "the bottleneck has moved off the chip and onto the power plug": short the picks-and-shovels that the market has already priced for an AGI buildout, long the infrastructure (power generation, datacenter colo housed in ex-miner shells, NAND/HBM) that hasn't.
Q1 2026 13F-HR via EDGAR. 42 line items, $13.68B total — 2.48× Q4 2025. Composition: $3.86B cash long (28%), $1.36B calls (10%), $8.46B puts (62%). The pivot quarter — Q4 2025 was 100% long/call; Q1 2026 introduces a $8.46B chip-short stack. Top 5 shorts: SMH put ($2.04B), NVDA put ($1.57B), ORCL put ($1.07B), AVGO put ($1.01B), AMD put ($969M). Top 5 longs: BE ($879M), SNDK ($724M), CRWV ($556M), IREN ($401M), CORZ ($389M). Three new names: SHAZ (SharonAI, IPO'd Feb 2026), TE (T1 Energy), HIVE (HIVE Digital). Closed since Q4: LITE, COHR, CIFR, HUT, EQT, KRC, TSEM, LBRT (optical leg fully exited, natural-gas/REIT leg trimmed).
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