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Treasury yields and the dollar deepen their decline as oil prices fall. Brent and WTI are down about 4%, reflecting hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories plummeted by 7.
The Treasury selloff takes a break, causing yields to fall slightly as markets worry about the inflationary consequences of the U.S.-Iran standoff. Oil futures slip, but remain high enough to keep policymakers on their toes.
The selloff in U.S. government bonds has paused for now, but it’s gotten Wall Street to ask: How much more turmoil would it take to push President Trump to soften his stance on Iran? The textbook example took place in April last year, when a messy sell-off in the bond market led Trump to pause sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. “Judging by the post-'Liberation Day’ episode last spring, market conditions might need to get considerably worse to generate a similar full-scale retreat,” Capital Economics wrote in a research note Tuesday.
Yields on U.S. Treasurys are continuing their ascent today, after climbing to multiyear highs over the past days. Yields on 10-year Treasurys are now trading well above 4.6%, while 30-year notes are not far off from 5.
The 10-year yield is up 0.023 percentage points to trade at 4.382%, while the 30-year yield is trading at 4.96%. "4.30%-4.40% has contained much of the price action in the 10-year sector of late," writes Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital.
Treasury yields decline despite higher-than-expected job creation in the U.S. and as President Trump calls a new flareup of hostilities with Iran a "trifle." April payrolls stand at 115,000, slower than March's upwardly revised 185,000 but well above WSJ consensus of 55,000.
Bond yields nearly rose to levels seen in March during the height of fears over the Iran War–but it shouldn’t frighten investors. Much of the gains in yields came ahead of that hour as the Treasury market sold off alongside rising oil prices. Multiple Fed presidents didn’t support the inclusion of an easing bias, or potential lower rates in the future, in the FOMC statement, telling traders the Fed is likely closer to hikes than cuts.
The U.S. debt market selloff picked up after the Fed left rates steady again. The Fed left rates steady but there was a higher level of dissent among participants. Fed governor Stephen Miran has typically dissented, but this time there were also multiple Fed presidents who didn’t support statement language including “an easing bias.”