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Bond yields have surpassed key thresholds that analysts say will hit the stock market.

Bond markets are steady as Wall Street worries about the global supply of oil amid no signs that tankers will soon resume normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump again threatens Iran with military action if Tehran doesn't agree to a peace deal.

Interest rates, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and credit conditions often determine which parts of the market lead and which fall behind. Dow Industrials trading near the very round 50,000 level is beginning to resemble a potential double top relative to the February peak. Bearish RSI divergence, marked by lower highs in April and May even as the Dow pushed upward, suggests upside momentum is fading.

Stocks tumbled at the open on Friday, pulling back from record levels after meetings between President Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping ended without a clear messaging of what’s to come. The Dow was down 408 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.6%. “We often get more market moving social media posts in the middle of the night than we got as part of this historic meeting,” wrote Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.

Hotter-than-expected consumer and wholesale price readings this week have rattled investors, who were already fretting about the war in the Middle East driving up fuel costs. President Donald Trump said overnight that the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all,” adding to worries that the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran could drag on.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising toward its highest level in nearly a year, as rising oil prices fan fears about inflation again. The yield topped 4.54% in early trading this morning, as Brent crude futures rose above $109 barrel. President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded this morning, and while Trump said both he and Xi want the war to end, the meeting publicly yielded little in the way of concrete steps toward a resolution.

Demand for Treasuries picks up overnight, and yields fall, as President Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping amid U.S. inflation jitters. Weekly jobless claims stay with a long-standing range, rising to 211,000 from a downwardly revised 199,000.

Stocks are hitting records as earnings surge. Meanwhile, bonds are competing harder for investor cash.

US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in 10 months as investors digested two hotter-than-expected inflation readings.

The Treasury Department auction of $42 billion worth of 10-year notes saw poor demand. Investors were awarded 4.468%, which was 0.4 basis points above the yield seen before the bidding deadline. The average over the past six such auctions has been 4.305%.

Tuesday’s hot inflation reading has added to pressure in the bond market, pushing Treasury yields closer to their highest levels of the year. In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S.

The Treasury is set to auction $42 billion worth of bonds that expire in 10 years this afternoon. The auction comes after the latest inflation report revealed that the central bank remains far from its 2% target. Expectations of stubborn prices make investors demand higher yields to make up for the loss in a bonds’ purchasing power.

Consumer prices jumped more than expected in April, a sign that inflation is accelerating as the Iran war's fallout ripples through the economy. The headline consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.8% from a year earlier, above the 0.59% monthly gain and 3.7% annual increase economists had forecast, according to a survey by FactSet. The 3.8% annual increase marks the fastest pace of price growth since May 2023 and is also a notable jump from March, when CPI rose 3.3% year over year.

Treasury yields rise as U.S. inflation accelerates while Middle East tensions remain high. Consumer prices rise at a 3.8% 12-month pace, accelerating from 3.3% in March. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected 3.

Stocks are inching lower on Monday in anticipation of a pivotal week, with data on inflation and retail sales. The Dow was down 68 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.1%. Markets are awaiting an update on prices, especially gasoline when the consumer price index is released Tuesday morning.

U.S. Treasury yields are choppy following a stronger-than-expected April jobs report. While the economy added more jobs than anticipated last month, bond investors were taking the data in stride. Many have become less worried about the labor market in recent months and shifted their focus to energy prices and the state of U.

Treasury yields keep falling as Wall Street expects U.S. and Iran to negotiate a peace deal. Oil prices keep falling. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise to 200,000 from a revised 190,000. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected 206,000.

Treasury yields traded steady early Friday, with continued uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East offset by oil prices dropping back following a large spike early on Thursday. Front-month Brent crude futures was last trading at $111.

The Treasury market selloff is not abating, rather it has reached a point where it’s not too far off from its 2026 high. The 10-year yield is at 4.412%. The highest settlement level for 2026, 4.439%, was hit March 27.

Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and Powell says there are too many factors set to hit inflation in the coming months to consider cutting interest rates right now. After three Fed presidents said they disagreed with language in the April FOMC statement that indicated an easing bias for the Fed, markets are moving to price in lower odds of an interest-rate cut in 2026. Markets are now pricing in just a 1.3% chance of a cut this year, down from an 18% chance just a day ago, per the CME FedWatch Tool. While Powell said there wasn't discussion of near-term interest rate hikes during the most recent meeting, markets are starting to price a slim chance of a rate increase.

It’s no secret that the Trump administration has consistently pushed the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Governor Miran, one of the Fed’s most vocal advocates for lower rates, said at a Washington forum this month that he has scaled back his outlook from four cuts this year to potentially three, acknowledging the inflation picture had grown more complicated even before the conflict with Iran began. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went a step further at a separate conference, saying cuts should come eventually but that waiting for clarity on the Iran situation is reasonable.

Chair Powell said in late March that policy is “in a good place to wait and see,” a view Governor Michael Barr and others have shared. In early April, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he believes the current rate will likely remain appropriate for some time, though he left the door open to both cuts and hikes depending on how conditions evolve. Gov. Christopher Waller has warned that an energy shock on top of existing tariff pressure could produce a more lasting rise in inflation, drawing a comparison to the pandemic-era sequence of supply shocks.

The majority of investors don't see the Fed cutting interest rates again until October 2027, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The outlook for an extended rate pause comes as oil prices surge once more and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% for the fifth consecutive year.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note broke past 4.4% as oil prices rose. The 10-year, which is the benchmark for many financial assets, has been range-bound lately. In April, through the end of last week, yields hovered between 4.

Treasury yields nudged higher but remained largely rangebound ahead of a rate decision and a Senate Banking Committee vote on the confirmation of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The Fed is largely expected to hold rates steady again this month, with the last of Chair Jerome Powell’s press conferences set for 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. Powell, whose term as chair ends next month, is likely to be replaced by Warsh, who will face a vote prior to the end of the Fed’s two-day meeting in Washington.