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Treasury yields and the dollar deepen their decline as oil prices fall. Brent and WTI are down about 4%, reflecting hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon. Meanwhile, U.S. crude inventories plummeted by 7.
The Treasury selloff takes a break, causing yields to fall slightly as markets worry about the inflationary consequences of the U.S.-Iran standoff. Oil futures slip, but remain high enough to keep policymakers on their toes.
The selloff in U.S. government bonds has paused for now, but it’s gotten Wall Street to ask: How much more turmoil would it take to push President Trump to soften his stance on Iran? The textbook example took place in April last year, when a messy sell-off in the bond market led Trump to pause sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. “Judging by the post-'Liberation Day’ episode last spring, market conditions might need to get considerably worse to generate a similar full-scale retreat,” Capital Economics wrote in a research note Tuesday.
Bond yields have surpassed key thresholds that analysts say will hit the stock market.
Yields on U.S. Treasurys are continuing their ascent today, after climbing to multiyear highs over the past days. Yields on 10-year Treasurys are now trading well above 4.6%, while 30-year notes are not far off from 5.
Bond markets are steady as Wall Street worries about the global supply of oil amid no signs that tankers will soon resume normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump again threatens Iran with military action if Tehran doesn't agree to a peace deal.
Interest rates, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and credit conditions often determine which parts of the market lead and which fall behind. Dow Industrials trading near the very round 50,000 level is beginning to resemble a potential double top relative to the February peak. Bearish RSI divergence, marked by lower highs in April and May even as the Dow pushed upward, suggests upside momentum is fading.
Rising Treasury yields are pressuring global stocks and forcing investors to rethink expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Stocks tumbled at the open on Friday, pulling back from record levels after meetings between President Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping ended without a clear messaging of what’s to come. The Dow was down 408 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.1%, and the Nasdaq was down 1.6%. “We often get more market moving social media posts in the middle of the night than we got as part of this historic meeting,” wrote Peter Tchir, Head of Macro Strategy at Academy Securities.
Hotter-than-expected consumer and wholesale price readings this week have rattled investors, who were already fretting about the war in the Middle East driving up fuel costs. President Donald Trump said overnight that the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all,” adding to worries that the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran could drag on.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising toward its highest level in nearly a year, as rising oil prices fan fears about inflation again. The yield topped 4.54% in early trading this morning, as Brent crude futures rose above $109 barrel. President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded this morning, and while Trump said both he and Xi want the war to end, the meeting publicly yielded little in the way of concrete steps toward a resolution.
Demand for Treasuries picks up overnight, and yields fall, as President Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping amid U.S. inflation jitters. Weekly jobless claims stay with a long-standing range, rising to 211,000 from a downwardly revised 199,000.
Stocks are hitting records as earnings surge. Meanwhile, bonds are competing harder for investor cash.
US Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in 10 months as investors digested two hotter-than-expected inflation readings.
The Treasury Department auction of $42 billion worth of 10-year notes saw poor demand. Investors were awarded 4.468%, which was 0.4 basis points above the yield seen before the bidding deadline. The average over the past six such auctions has been 4.305%.
Tuesday’s hot inflation reading has added to pressure in the bond market, pushing Treasury yields closer to their highest levels of the year. In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S.
The Treasury is set to auction $42 billion worth of bonds that expire in 10 years this afternoon. The auction comes after the latest inflation report revealed that the central bank remains far from its 2% target. Expectations of stubborn prices make investors demand higher yields to make up for the loss in a bonds’ purchasing power.
Consumer prices jumped more than expected in April, a sign that inflation is accelerating as the Iran war's fallout ripples through the economy. The headline consumer price index rose 0.6% from the previous month and 3.8% from a year earlier, above the 0.59% monthly gain and 3.7% annual increase economists had forecast, according to a survey by FactSet. The 3.8% annual increase marks the fastest pace of price growth since May 2023 and is also a notable jump from March, when CPI rose 3.3% year over year.
Treasury yields rise as U.S. inflation accelerates while Middle East tensions remain high. Consumer prices rise at a 3.8% 12-month pace, accelerating from 3.3% in March. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected 3.
The 10-year yield is up 0.023 percentage points to trade at 4.382%, while the 30-year yield is trading at 4.96%. "4.30%-4.40% has contained much of the price action in the 10-year sector of late," writes Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital.
Stocks are inching lower on Monday in anticipation of a pivotal week, with data on inflation and retail sales. The Dow was down 68 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.1%. Markets are awaiting an update on prices, especially gasoline when the consumer price index is released Tuesday morning.
Treasury yields decline despite higher-than-expected job creation in the U.S. and as President Trump calls a new flareup of hostilities with Iran a "trifle." April payrolls stand at 115,000, slower than March's upwardly revised 185,000 but well above WSJ consensus of 55,000.
U.S. Treasury yields are choppy following a stronger-than-expected April jobs report. While the economy added more jobs than anticipated last month, bond investors were taking the data in stride. Many have become less worried about the labor market in recent months and shifted their focus to energy prices and the state of U.
Treasury yields keep falling as Wall Street expects U.S. and Iran to negotiate a peace deal. Oil prices keep falling. U.S. weekly jobless claims rise to 200,000 from a revised 190,000. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected 206,000.
Treasury yields traded steady early Friday, with continued uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East offset by oil prices dropping back following a large spike early on Thursday. Front-month Brent crude futures was last trading at $111.
Bond yields nearly rose to levels seen in March during the height of fears over the Iran War–but it shouldn’t frighten investors. Much of the gains in yields came ahead of that hour as the Treasury market sold off alongside rising oil prices. Multiple Fed presidents didn’t support the inclusion of an easing bias, or potential lower rates in the future, in the FOMC statement, telling traders the Fed is likely closer to hikes than cuts.
The Treasury market selloff is not abating, rather it has reached a point where it’s not too far off from its 2026 high. The 10-year yield is at 4.412%. The highest settlement level for 2026, 4.439%, was hit March 27.
