Dan Niles says Apple's AI missteps saved it from a capex trap, but warns its valuation carries risk into earnings.
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A 53-year-old with two decades of maxed-out 401(k) contributions thinks she built a diversified retirement. She may have accidentally built a concentrated AI bet instead, and the one safety net she overlooked could be worth far more than she realizes.
Wall Street is spooked by Alphabet's ballooning capex bill, but the earnings report buried a number that reframes the entire bear case and points to a second AI bet most investors overlook entirely.
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<body><p>STORY: Wall Street ended mixed on Monday, with the Dow gaining half a percent, the S&P 500 virtually flat and the Nasdaq dropping marginally.</p><p>Investors awaited earnings results from Big Tech companies this week, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple. Of the four, only Apple has seen significant gains this year, with investors concerned about future returns on massive AI spending.</p><p>Skyler Weinand is chief investment officer at Regan Capital.</p><p>"If they don't come out and beat [estimates], they're going to sell off even further. You're going to see some profit taking. You're going to see some hedge funds and retail [investors] potentially pack it in for the rest of the year, sitting up 10 to 15%. I don't blame them. // I don't really see the opportunity for these companies that have run so much over the past 18 to 24 months on that AI build out. I don't see that as a huge buying opportunity. I would rather be looking at some of the companies that have fallen behind a little bit. Auto manufacturers are having their day right now. Defense companies are having their day. Some of these companies that will continue to print earnings regardless of what comes from AI build out."</p><p>The Philadelphia semiconductor index extended its recent selloff, falling more than 2%. It is down 21% from its record high close on June 22 but remains up 63% in 2026.</p><p>Chinese chipmaker CXMT's stellar debut on Monday and a report that the country has started manufacturing homegrown deep ultraviolet chipmaking tools also signaled intensifying competition for the U.S. semiconductor industry.</p><p>Meanwhile, oil prices slid after President Donald Trump said the administration was having "good talks" with Iran, but warned that U.S. strikes would resume if the negotiations failed to deliver.</p><p>Shares of Occidental Petroleum fell more than 4% and Exxon Mobil also closed lower.</p><p>Traders this week will also turn their attention to Tuesday's start of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, with traders projecting a more than 60% chance that the central bank will leave rates unchanged, according to CME's FedWatch tool.</p></body>
CNBC's "Chart Master," Carter Worth, breaks down the charts behind the market and the WRTH ETF.
Chip stocks declined, with a big week of tech earnings looming. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.2%, while the Dow industrials rose 0.5%.

Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) is reportedly in talks with OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) to help fund a $250 billion backstop, according to the Wall Street Journal, that would guarantee the latter's plans for an AI data center in Ohio. Yahoo Finance Tech Editor Dan Howley touches on the investor concerns this possible partnership could signal about circular investing in the AI landscape.

Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre takes a look at how market capitalization changed in July for the top US stocks: SpaceX (SPCX), Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Apple (AAPL).
While strong cash flow is a key indicator of stability, it doesn’t always translate to superior returns. Some cash-heavy businesses struggle with inefficient spending, slowing demand, or weak competitive positioning.
Business confidence has strengthened one year after the United States and European Union reached their trade agreement.
Chip stocks pulled Nasdaq lower to start the week, as falling oil prices failed to give markets a broad reprieve. Nvidia shares are down about 5%, dragging its market value below that of Apple’s in intraday trading. Investors will watch for a fresh batch of U.S. tech earnings this week, including reports from Microsoft and Meta Platforms on Wednesday.
Apple is facing a lawsuit from three users who say they collectively lost more than $1.8 million after downloading a fraudulent crypto wallet from the App Store, challenging the company’s longstanding claims that its app review process keeps users safe from scams.
Amazon is expanding its plans for providing satellite connectivity to mobile phones.
China takes aim at memory stock profits, and Micron is the target.
China is taking aim at memory stock profits, and Sandisk could be the next target.
