Bubbles

GPUs, accelerators, and the AI-specific silicon stack that moves as one under capital flows.

Picks and shovels of chip manufacturing - the machines that make the machines.

DRAM, HBM, memory IP, advanced packaging, and storage - the memory bottleneck of AI compute scaling. The Samsung+SK Hynix+Micron trio is forecast to print ~$454B in FY26 operating income (Samsung +413% / SK Hynix +593% / Micron +684%) on HBM allocation tightness through 2026. **The cycle framework.** Memory is the most cyclical sub-sector in semis - commodity output, multi-year capex lag against quarter-by-quarter demand, three-player oligopoly with prisoner's-dilemma supply discipline. Every up-cycle in the last decade has ended in a 50-75% drawdown within 12-18 months of the peak (2015 -75%, 2018 -57%, 2022 -51%). The current cycle is +1,851% off the 2023 lows - larger than the prior three combined. AI dampens the cycle (HBM LTAs, healthier customer concentration, slower supply response) but does not eliminate it; roughly 70% of Micron's bit output is still commodity DRAM/NAND. **Where the cycle sits now (2026-05-28).** 8 of 10 structural signals read late or peak: weekly RSI 86, +1,873% off the low, op margin 67.6% (above any prior cycle peak), forward PE 8.76× (canonical signature of peak earnings about to roll over), analyst price-target lagging price by -50%, peak-cycle capex committed ($100B+ across the three players). Two signals have NOT triggered: spot DRAM has not rolled over, and Micron has not yet issued equity at ATH (the classic peak confirmation - they did at $60 in 2018 and $90 in 2021). The bloc is in the late phase of an up-cycle that may have one more leg. **Eight leading indicators to watch** (in rough order of lead time): DXI/DRAM spot price (3-6 months ahead), HBM allocation tightness (~3 months), memory lead times (~3 months), hyperscaler inventory days (1-2 quarters), fab utilization (~1 quarter), capex/sales ratio (late-cycle confirm), MU equity issuance at ATH (peak confirm), MU relative performance vs SOXX (~6 weeks). Two cycle-turn triggers within 30 days historically precede the price peak by 4-8 weeks. Full framework + position-management template: /articles/memory-cyclicality-the-supercycle-that-still-has-a-cycle.

The subset of mega-caps whose AI capex narrative dominates price action.

Workflow and data-platform SaaS monetizing AI - the legacy-software AI trade.

Moving bits between tens of thousands of GPUs - optical is non-negotiable.

AI eats electricity. Utilities and independent power are the unlock.

Clean baseload for hyperscaler campuses - SMRs and uranium miners.

Physical plant of AI - cooling, switchgear, prefab datacenter components.

Physical AI - industrial, surgical, and humanoid robotics.

Edge compute, global data pipes, earth observation - orbital layer of AI.

Post-GPU compute optionality - long-dated but asymmetric.