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Picks and shovels of chip manufacturing - the machines that make the machines.
| Indicator | State | Current reading | Lead (mo) |
|---|---|---|---|
WFE capex YoY (combined) Combined wafer-fab-equipment spending YoY across TSMC + Samsung + Intel + memory makers (MU / SK Hynix). The single most important demand signal for equipment OEMs. Lags memory pricing by ~2 quarters. | bullish | +18% YoY est (TSMC ~$50B FY26, Samsung $200B+/20yr, MU Idaho ramping) | 6 |
EUV system shipments (ASML quarterly) ASML EUV unit shipments per quarter (NXE:3800 + High-NA EXE:5200). Direct measure of leading-edge node ramp; the cleanest single-vendor cycle indicator in equipment. | bullish | at peak - 12+ per quarter, first High-NA EXE shipping | 4.5 |
Equipment book-to-bill ratio |
| bullish |
| ~1.05 industry-wide (most OEMs > 1.0) |
| 3 |
Memory fab utilization % Cross-bubble signal: same underlying datum as the memory bubble's indicator #5. When memory fabs run >90%, they order replacement and expansion equipment. When utilization drops, equipment orders crater with a lag. | bullish | >95% across Samsung, SK Hynix, MU | 4.5 |
ASML order backlog (€B) ASML disclosed order backlog in euros. Most forward-looking indicator in the entire bubble - backlog at 18-24 months of revenue means the bubble has demand visibility through 2027+. | bullish | ~€40B (well above pre-AI ~€18B baseline) | 12 |
Equipment OEM operating margin % Industry-wide equipment OEM op margin (ASML / AMAT / LRCX / KLAC blended). Currently at decade highs (32-38%); historically these revert in the bust phase. Peak margins = late-cycle. | bearish | ASML 33% / AMAT 32% / LRCX 32% / KLAC 38% - all at decade highs | 12 |
TSMC gross margin trajectory TSMC quarterly gross margin and forward guide. Downstream proxy for foundry pricing power. When TSMC GM rises, fabs can absorb equipment price increases; when it compresses, equipment OEMs lose pricing. | bullish | 58% Q1 2026, guiding 58-60% | 3 |
Equipment OEMs vs SMH (60-day) 60-day relative return of an equal-weighted equipment basket (ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLAC) vs SMH. Leader-vs-laggard signal: equipment names lead semis on the way up, lag on the way down. | bullish | outperforming (basket +15% / SMH +8% trailing 60d) | 2 |
Leading-indicator scorecard tracking the cycle phase. 3+ bearish signals classifies as cycle turning. Methodology and full framework: memory cyclicality framework · signals last updated 2026-05-28
ACLS | AMAT | ASML | ICHR | LRCX | AEHR | KLAC | 3110 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACLS | · | 0.68 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.57 | 0.24 | - |
| AMAT | 0.68 | · | 0.80 | 0.68 | 0.90 | 0.61 | 0.33 | - |
| ASML | 0.61 | 0.80 | · | 0.61 | 0.84 | 0.58 | 0.32 | - |
| ICHR | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.61 | · | 0.67 | 0.52 | 0.25 | - |
| LRCX | 0.67 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.67 | · | 0.61 | 0.33 | - |
| AEHR | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.52 | 0.61 | · | 0.24 | - |
| KLAC | 0.24 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.24 | · | - |
| 3110 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | · |
Ticker order reflects hierarchical clustering assignment. Tighter green blocks on the diagonal = stronger sub-clusters within the bubble.
Daily net ETF creations minus redemptions across primary ETFs in the bubble. Green = capital in, red = capital out. Computed nightly from issuer NAV + shares-outstanding data.