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Ichor Holdings, Ltd.
Information Technology · Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Structural: Pure-play WFE subsystem supplier; revenue concentrated in $AMAT + $LRCX (combined >80% historically). Order book is a second derivative of leading-edge logic + DRAM/HBM capex - whips harder than the anchors on both sides.
- HBM + advanced packaging capex re-acceleration drives gas-panel content per tool
- Internal proprietary content ramp (machining, weldments, gas-stick valves) lifts gross margin toward mid-teens from sub-10%
- Operating leverage is severe - modeled ~$1.2B revenue run-rate flips EPS sharply positive
- China WFE recovery + non-anchor OEM wins ($KLAC, $ASML lithography ancillaries) diversify the book
- Trades at 1.5-2x sales vs $AMAT/$LRCX at 5-8x - re-rating optionality if margin story lands
- Customer concentration: any $AMAT or $LRCX inventory correction is immediate revenue cliff
- Gross margins structurally thin (high single digits to low teens) - limited cushion in downturn
- Memory capex cyclicality + China export controls cap upside vs front-end anchors
- Build-to-order working capital swings cash flow violently
- Proprietary content ramp has slipped before; execution risk on margin guide
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