What are the top stocks in the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble?

QuantAbundancia maps 5 primary stocks to the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble: MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, ORCL.

What ETFs carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis?

4 ETFs on QuantAbundancia carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis: XLK (primary), MAGS, SKYY, VGT.

How correlated are AI-Capex Hyperscalers stocks?

The AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble's primary members co-move with a 252-day average correlation of 0.26 across 10 pairs - weak co-movement.

AI-Capex Hyperscalers

The subset of mega-caps whose AI capex narrative dominates price action.

0.257avg corr (252d)

0.10 / 0.43min / max

10pairs

5primary stocks

4etfs

Weak co-movement

Stocks

MSFTMicrosoft Corporation
Azure + OpenAI + Copilot.
$390.74
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.
AWS + Bedrock + Trainium.
$238.55
$232fib+3%
METAMeta Platforms, Inc.
Largest Nvidia customer, Llama.
$566.98
GOOGLAlphabet Inc. Class A
Diverges from MSFT/META/AMZN cluster (252d corr). Distinct AI-capex trajectory.
$359.68
$272fib+32%
ORCLOracle Corporation
Diverges from core hyperscaler cluster (252d corr). OCI/Stargate narrative is idiosyncratic.
$184.13
Adjacent (secondary)
BRUNBoost Run, Inc.
Micro-cap neocloud (GPU-as-a-service) in the CoreWeave / Nebius cohort; rents AI compute capacity rather than operating its own models. Mapped to hyperscalers (same as NBIS) as the closest existing home; candidate to anchor a dedicated "Neocloud / GPU-as-a-Service" bubble once CRWV / NBIS / IREN / APLD are grouped.
$30.92
MAMastercard Incorporated
Classifier 2026-05-07: extended tier, corr 0.45 to hyperscalers centroid (29 obs, 2nd: ai-software 0.379). is_primary_bubble=FALSE.
$489.98
NBISNebius Group N.V.
Classifier 2026-05-07: extended tier, corr 0.34 to hyperscalers centroid (29 obs, 2nd: memory 0.342). is_primary_bubble=FALSE.
$232.36
$113fib+106%
SNAPSnap Inc.
Classifier 2026-05-07: extended tier, corr 0.42 to hyperscalers centroid (29 obs, 2nd: ai-software 0.299). is_primary_bubble=FALSE.
$5.26

Correlation matrix (252d)

	MSFT	ORCL	AMZN	GOOGL	META
MSFT	·	0.40	0.30	0.12	0.26
ORCL	0.40	·	0.10	0.13	0.16
AMZN	0.30	0.10	·	0.43	0.42
GOOGL	0.12	0.13	0.43	·	0.25
META	0.26	0.16	0.42	0.25	·

Ticker order reflects hierarchical clustering assignment. Tighter green blocks on the diagonal = stronger sub-clusters within the bubble.

ETF flows (30d)

30 days with data

+$18.71B

net flow · 30d

$124.5B

bubble AUM

+$22.22B

biggest inflow

-$4.79B

biggest outflow

Daily net ETF creations minus redemptions across primary ETFs in the bubble. Green = capital in, red = capital out. Computed nightly from issuer NAV + shares-outstanding data.

Research

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ETFs carrying the thesis

XLKPrimary
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund
State Street
-
MAGS
Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF
Roundhill
-
SKYY
First Trust Cloud Computing ETF
First Trust
-
VGT
Vanguard Information Technology ETF
Vanguard
-

Sub-clusters

MSFTORCL
AMZNGOOGL
META

Frequently asked questions

What are the top stocks in the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble?: QuantAbundancia maps 5 primary stocks to the AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble: MSFT, AMZN, META, GOOGL, ORCL.
What ETFs carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis?: 4 ETFs on QuantAbundancia carry the AI-Capex Hyperscalers thesis: XLK (primary), MAGS, SKYY, VGT.
How correlated are AI-Capex Hyperscalers stocks?: The AI-Capex Hyperscalers bubble's primary members co-move with a 252-day average correlation of 0.26 across 10 pairs - weak co-movement.