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Microsoft Corporation
Information Technology · Systems Software
Structural: MSFT is the OpenAI distribution layer - exclusive cloud for GPT training/inference, $13B+ invested, Copilot wraps the models into 400M+ M365 commercial seats at $30/user/mo. Azure has run 30%+ YoY for 6 quarters with AI services contributing 12-16pp; capex tracks $80B+ FY25 vs $56B FY24 to keep up with $NVDA allocation.
Activision closed Oct-2023 - $ATVI library now in Game Pass.
- Azure AI services ARR exiting calendar 2025 in the $13B+ range; Copilot attach rising q/q
- M365 + Dynamics + LinkedIn = ~$110B/yr defensive SaaS, mid-teens grower, pricing power
- OpenAI partnership = first-look on every model; revenue share on API + Azure consumption
- GitHub Copilot 1.8M+ paid seats, Copilot Studio enterprise agent layer
- Net cash + buybacks + dividend; FCF margin 30%+
- $80B capex cycle compresses FCF; ROIC on AI buildout unproven through 2027
- OpenAI relationship strained: OAI building own compute (Stargate w/ $ORCL + Crusoe), exclusivity language softened
- Copilot consumer adoption underwhelming; enterprise attach below early bull case
- Azure growth deceleration risk if hyperscale AI capex digestion arrives
- Regulatory: FTC + EU on $ATVI cloud-streaming, M365 bundling complaints
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