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Chair Powell said in late March that policy is “in a good place to wait and see,” a view Governor Michael Barr and others have shared. In early April, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he believes the current rate will likely remain appropriate for some time, though he left the door open to both cuts and hikes depending on how conditions evolve. Gov. Christopher Waller has warned that an energy shock on top of existing tariff pressure could produce a more lasting rise in inflation, drawing a comparison to the pandemic-era sequence of supply shocks.

The majority of investors don't see the Fed cutting interest rates again until October 2027, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The outlook for an extended rate pause comes as oil prices surge once more and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% for the fifth consecutive year.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury note broke past 4.4% as oil prices rose. The 10-year, which is the benchmark for many financial assets, has been range-bound lately. In April, through the end of last week, yields hovered between 4.

Treasury yields nudged higher but remained largely rangebound ahead of a rate decision and a Senate Banking Committee vote on the confirmation of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh. The Fed is largely expected to hold rates steady again this month, with the last of Chair Jerome Powell’s press conferences set for 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. Powell, whose term as chair ends next month, is likely to be replaced by Warsh, who will face a vote prior to the end of the Fed’s two-day meeting in Washington.