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Crude oil has fallen back into the $60-$70 range, inflation fears are fading, and traders are pricing in a less restrictive Fed. Could Treasury yields be the next market to catch up? We break down the fundamentals, seasonals, and technicals, pointing toward lower yields into early September.
Stocks are modestly higher amid a dip in crude oil prices and Treasury yields. Gold and silver are mixed, while the dollar is flat.
A stronger-than-expected April jobs report gave investors a second straight upside surprise, a welcome development after an uneven stretch for the labor market. Payrolls rose while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, although average hourly earnings were a bit light, writes Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro US.
The Federal Reserve has already trimmed its policy rate by 0.75 percentage points over the past year, leaving the upper bound at 3.75%. The question facing rate-sensitive sectors is what happens if the cutting cycle continues. Three exchange-traded funds sit at the center of that question: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), the ... Rate Cuts Are Coming: Here’s How to Position TLT, XLRE, and ITB Now
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