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Leopold Aschenbrenner
Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-supercycle hedge fund (Situational Awareness LP, San Francisco), launched late 2024 after the founder left OpenAI's Superalignment team. Aschenbrenner (25) wrote the canonical AGI-imminence essay "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead"; the book is the financial expression of that thesis. **2026-05-27 SC 13G DISCLOSURE - $NBIS at 5.6%.** Filed a 12,410,060 Class A share stake in Nebius Group, ~$2.59B at filing-date close ($208.37). This is the SINGLE LARGEST position ever disclosed by the fund - bigger than the $2.04B SMH put or the $1.57B NVDA put from the Q1 2026 13F-HR. NBIS is the ex-Yandex N.V. AI-compute infrastructure spinoff, US-listed on NASDAQ since late 2024, operating NVIDIA H100/H200 GPU clusters in Finland and serving AI labs + enterprises via Nebius AI Cloud. Acquired between 2026-03-31 (Q1 13F cutoff) and the 2026-05-27 disclosure. The 13G adds a NEW thematic leg on top of the Q1 book: a direct operational-AI-compute long - owning the running cluster business itself, not just the supply chain feeding it. Q1 2026 13F-HR (period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-18) documents the tactical pivot quarter: 42 positions, $13.68B total notional - 2.5× the Q4 2025 book. The portfolio is 62% SHORT via $8.46B in puts hitting the entire chip stack - SMH ($2.04B), NVDA ($1.57B), AMD ($969M), AVGO ($1.01B), ORCL ($1.07B), ASML ($494M), plus straddles on MU and TSM. The long side held the AI-infrastructure-bottleneck thesis: Bloom Energy ($879M anchor + $55M calls), SanDisk tripled to $1.11B aggregate (long+calls), CoreWeave ~$700M, all nine BTC-miners-to-HPC names retained (CORZ $389M, IREN $401M, APLD $320M, RIOT $142M, CLSK $104M, BITF, BTDR, HIVE, CIFR-out). Three new names this quarter: SHAZ, TE, HIVE. Activist tier: CORZ 13D at 9.4%, position held through Q1. Pattern reads as: short the picks-and-shovels priced for AGI buildout, long the infrastructure (power generation, datacenter colo housed in ex-miner shells, NAND/HBM) - and now ALSO long the operational AI compute layer via NBIS - that the market hasn't fully priced.
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness LP is the hedge fund of the 25-year-old ex-OpenAI Superalignment researcher who published the influential 'Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead' essay in mid-2024. The fund launched late 2024, backed by Patrick Collison, Daniel Gross, and Nat Friedman, with a single mandate: trade the financial expression of the situational-awareness thesis - that AGI arrives by 2027-2028 and the entire industrial base of the West bends to make it happen.
The Q4 2025 13F-HR (filed February 2026) and Q1 2026 13F-HR (filed May 2026) document a portfolio that maps almost exclusively to AI-infrastructure bottlenecks rather than to obvious AI-demand names. The book holds zero Mag-7 longs through Q1 2026 and instead concentrates capital on Bloom Energy (on-site fuel-cell power for AI datacenters), SanDisk (NAND flash for AI-storage tier), CoreWeave (the GPU-cloud neocloud), the nine bitcoin-miners-converting-to-AI-HPC names (APLD, CORZ, IREN, RIOT, CLSK, BITF, BTDR, HIVE, CIFR-exited), and a Q1 2026 chip-short stack ($8.5B of puts on SMH, NVDA, ORCL, AVGO, AMD) that telegraphs the tactical view that picks-and-shovels are over-priced relative to power-and-bandwidth.
For retail traders, Aschenbrenner's 13F is the cleanest available expression of a single-thesis, bottleneck-first AI investing framework. The construction is the lesson: capital flows to where the constraint binds, not to where the narrative is loudest. The hyperscalers and AI-software names that dominate every retail AI-trade list are absent. Power, storage, GPU-cloud, and bitcoin-miner-conversion are the entire long book.
SC 13G filed 2026-05-27 disclosing a 5.6% stake in $NBIS (Nebius Group): 12,410,060 Class A shares with shared voting and shared dispositive power, sole voting/dispositive both 0. Reporting persons: Situational Awareness LP (Delaware, PN/IN). At $NBIS = $208.37 close 2026-05-27, the position marks to ~$2.59B - the single largest disclosed line in the fund's history. Position acquired between Q1 13F cutoff 2026-03-31 and 2026-05-27. Source: @burrytracker tweet image of the filing cover page; accession number to be back-filled once available on EDGAR. Will appear in full context alongside the rest of the book in the Q2 2026 13F-HR (period 2026-06-30, filed ~2026-08-15).
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