CDE

Structural: post-SilverCrest, CDE is a ~40% silver / 60% gold producer with Las Chispas (one of the highest-grade primary silver mines globally, ~600 g/t AgEq) anchoring unit economics. Rochester expansion (POA 11) finally ramping to nameplate after multi-year capex overhang - 2026 is first year of full-rate throughput.

Net debt trending down from peak refi levels; free cash flow inflection underway at spot metals.

Bull case:

- Silver beta - every $1/oz move in spot silver ~$25M annualized EBITDA at current mix

- Las Chispas integration de-risks the silver leg; grade + recoveries beat legacy CDE assets

- Rochester ramp closes the credibility gap that kept CDE trading at a discount to AG/PAAS multiples

- Gold leg (Kensington + Wharf + Palmarejo byproduct) provides cash flow floor while silver thesis plays out

- Industrial silver demand (solar PV, EVs) provides structural bid independent of monetary trade

Bear case:

- Pure spot-price taker; no hedge book = full downside to silver/gold drawdowns

- Rochester ramp has slipped multiple times; execution risk not fully behind

- SilverCrest dilution still digesting; share count ~600M post-deal

- All-in sustaining costs at Palmarejo and Kensington remain above peer average

- Mexican mining policy + permitting overhang on Las Chispas / Palmarejo