CL

Structural: $CL runs a globally dominant oral care franchise (~40% global toothpaste share, #1 in 200+ markets) layered on top of Hill's Science Diet - a premium science-led pet nutrition brand riding vet-recommended channel economics. Roughly 70% of revenue is ex-US with heavy LatAm + EM volume mix, giving the model a non-discretionary cash-flow profile insulated from US discretionary cycles.

Bull case:

- Oral care category is consolidating, not commoditizing - premium SKUs (whitening, sensitive, enzyme) lift unit pricing without volume risk.

- Hill's grows mid-to-high single digits structurally; pet humanization tailwind is intact in DM and accelerating in EM.

- Pricing power has been demonstrated through 2022-2024 inflation - gross margin recovered to ~60% on raw-material rollover + productivity.

- EM volume mix (LatAm, India, Africa) compounds on demographics; LatAm is 25%+ of group sales.

- Capital return: consistent buyback + 60+ year dividend track record; FCF conversion >95%.

Bear case:

- US oral care share losses to private label + challenger brands ($PG Crest, Hello pre-acquisition, Lumineux).

- LatAm FX (BRL, MXN, ARS) is a structural translation drag - peso devaluation can erase reported growth.

- GLP-1 read-through on pet food (smaller portion sizes, fewer treats) is a tail risk for Hill's.

- Valuation premium (~22-24x fwd P/E) leaves little cushion if EM volume slows.