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ConocoPhillips
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
95 mmboe/d post-Marathon Oil). No refining, no retail - clean upstream proxy. Cost of supply <$40/bbl WTI across a decade of Lower 48 inventory; Alaska Willow first oil 2029. 2 mtpa Qatar = exposure to AI-datacenter-driven US gas demand and trans-Pacific LNG arb.
5x ND/EBITDA).
(1) oil-price taker - every $10/bbl WTI move is ~$3-4B FCF swing; (2) Permian inventory depth shorter than $XOM / $CVX integrated peers, M&A treadmill required; (3) variable dividend cuts in $50s WTI signal to retail; (4) Alaska / Willow environmental litigation reopens with administration changes; (5) global gas glut 2027-2028 if every announced LNG project FIDs on schedule.