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Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Information Technology · Semiconductors
6T transitions favor AEC over passive DAC on reach + signal-integrity grounds. CRDO is the merchant leader in AECs with deep design wins at Microsoft, Amazon, and a third hyperscaler ramping FY26. SerDes IP licensing (Intel, Samsung Foundry) is optional upside.
- AEC TAM inflection as 800G GPU clusters generalize beyond Microsoft
- Hyperscaler concentration flipping from risk to validation; third + fourth customers ramping
- Optical DSP (Linear Pluggable Optics, LPO) is a free call option on 1.6T transition
- Gross margin mix-shift toward IP licensing + optical DSP lifts blended GM toward 65%+
- $NVDA Spectrum-X + Blackwell scale-out demand pulls forward AEC orders
- Customer concentration: Microsoft >40% of revenue in recent quarters; single-customer slowdown is brutal
- $MRVL + $AVGO compete on SerDes IP and optical DSP with broader pluggable footprints
- Co-packaged optics (CPO) thesis from $NVDA / $TSM could compress AEC TAM at 1.6T+
- Multiple compression risk - trades at >20x forward sales on hyperscaler-cycle math
- Insider + secondary supply has been heavy through 2026