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General Dynamics Corporation
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural read: GD is the only US yard certified to build nuclear-powered submarines alongside $HII - Electric Boat is on contract for Block V/VI Virginia ($17B+ multi-year) and the Columbia SSBN ballistic-missile replacement program, a multi-decade backlog tied to the AUKUS pact and Navy 30-year shipbuilding plan.
Combat Systems is levered to munitions replenishment (155mm artillery surge post-Ukraine, Abrams M1A2 SEPv3 upgrades) while Gulfstream G700/G800 ramp drives the Aerospace recovery off the 2024 certification trough.
- Submarine backlog visibility through 2040+ (Columbia builds run 2030s)
- Munitions/155mm capacity expansion funded by DoD multi-year procurement
- Gulfstream G700 deliveries ramping, G800 EIS adds mix lift
- Defense budget tailwind: FY26 topline + supplemental Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan
- Total backlog >$90B provides multi-year revenue floor
- Electric Boat margins compressed by labor + supplier constraints (sub-7% segment)
- Columbia program is fixed-price-incentive - overrun risk sits with GD
- Gulfstream cyclical, exposed to bizjet demand + used-inventory overhang
- GDIT IT-services segment is low-margin, dilutive to mix
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