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Plug Power Inc.
Industrials · Electrical Equipment
Structural: vertically integrated hydrogen pure-play - electrolyzers + liquefaction + delivery + fuel cells - at a time when hyperscaler power demand is reopening the conversation around non-grid baseload. Stargate-class AI campuses are studying on-site hydrogen for backup/peaking power, and PLUG is one of the few US names with operating tonnage today (Georgia 15 TPD, Tennessee 10 TPD, Louisiana JV with $AIR).
- Operating liquid-H2 plants (GA/TN/LA) - actual tons/day, not slideware
- 45V IRA production tax credit (up to $3/kg) materially shifts unit economics
- Stargate / hyperscaler hydrogen optionality if any campus picks H2 backup
- Long-haul trucking + forklift fleets (Amazon, Walmart) provide demand floor
- Electrolyzer backlog gives recurring equipment revenue alongside H2 sales
- Chronic cash burn - repeated ATM raises, dilutive to existing holders
- Going-concern language flagged in past 10-Qs
- Gross margin negative on most segments; scale needed years out
- 45V final rules tightened additionality; not every plant qualifies cleanly
- Hydrogen demand thesis structurally slower than equity narrative implies
- Sub-$5 stock = institutional ownership ceiling, retail-dominated tape
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