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Rocket Companies, Inc.
Financials · Consumer Finance
Structural: Rocket is the #1 US retail mortgage originator by volume - a scaled tech-first platform competing with depository banks ($JPM, $WFC) and non-bank peers ($UWMC, $LDI). Revenue mix is the cycle tell: origination gain-on-sale collapses in high-rate environments, MSR servicing fees grow as the book seasons.
Pending Redfin acquisition layers home search + brokerage onto the loan funnel, with cross-sell math anchoring the deal logic.
- Fed rate-cut cycle reopens refi window; RKT operating leverage on origination is extreme (fixed tech stack, variable capacity)
- MSR book valuation rises as rates fall slower than origination recovers - net positive carry
- Redfin deal closes Q3 2026 → vertical funnel (search → finance → close) defensible vs $Z, $UWMC
- Rocket Money subscription + Rocket Loans personal credit diversify away from pure mortgage beta
- Dan Gilbert super-voting control means long-duration capital allocation, no activist pressure
- 7%+ mortgage rates persist → origination volumes stay 40-50% below 2021 peak indefinitely
- MSR mark-to-market swings introduce GAAP earnings volatility quarter-to-quarter
- Redfin integration risk: $1.75B all-stock deal dilutes Class A; cultural + platform merger historically messy in real estate
- Class A float is small (~150M shares) vs ~1.85B Class D held by insiders - limited true free float distorts trading
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