ROKU

Structural: ~90M Streaming Households, #1 US smart-TV OS share, ~30B hours streamed annually. Platform revenue ~85%+ of mix, Devices is a customer-acquisition cost line. The Roku Channel is now a top-5 streaming app by reach - owned-and-operated ad inventory the company captures 100% of vs ~20% rev-share on third-party apps.

Bull case:

- CTV ad budgets still mid-shift from linear TV ($60B+ US linear pool migrating)

- Owned-and-operated Roku Channel scaling faster than platform avg, lifting ad take-rate

- International (Mexico, UK, Germany, Brazil) still <15% of accounts - long runway

- Programmatic Roku Exchange + $DSP partnerships (The Trade Desk OpenPath, $AMZN DSP integration) deepening monetization

- Operating leverage: gross profit growing 2-3× faster than headcount post-2025 cuts

Bear case:

- Walmart-$VZIO close (Dec 2024) created a vertically integrated #2 OS with retail distribution Roku can't match

- $GOOGL TV (Google TV) and $AMZN Fire TV pushing OS share via OEM subsidies

- ARPU growth decelerating; ad pricing pressure from $NFLX/$DIS ad tiers absorbing CTV budgets directly

- Smart TV is now a commodity - Roku TV partners (TCL, Hisense) can re-platform to Google TV at contract renewal

- No subscription moat: switching cost for households near zero