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Trimble Inc.
Information Technology · Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components
Structural: pure-play on physical-world digitization - GPS/GNSS + sensors + software for construction (~50% of rev), transportation (~25%), geospatial (~15%) and resources/utilities. 1B and growing ~15% YoY. AGCO JV (PTx Trimble) externalized the agriculture hardware drag while keeping a 15% equity stake in the autonomy/precision-ag platform attached to AGCO's distribution.
- Connect & Scale ARR compounding mid-teens; gross margin re-rated 53%→63% over 3y as mix shifts to software
- PTx Trimble JV adds optionality on global precision-ag rollout via AGCO channel without the capex
- Owns the GNSS correction network (Trimble RTX) - moaty subscription layer competitors can't replicate
- Infrastructure cycle (US IIJA + EU green transition) is a multi-year tailwind for construction software
- Buyback resumed post-AGCO cash inflow; net debt cut to ~1.5x EBITDA
- Construction software (e.g. $AUTODESK, $PCOR) competes head-on in same workflow; sales cycles long
- Hardware legacy still ~40% of revenue and cyclical to construction/transport capex
- Transportation segment (ag-trucking software) has been a chronic underperformer - restructured twice in 3y
- Multiple (~22x fwd P/E) prices in the SaaS transition; any ARR deceleration de-rates fast
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