AI IPO lockup expirations: CoreWeave, Circle, Cerebras & Nebius dates

The standard read on an IPO lockup expiration is one line: insiders can finally sell, supply floods in, the stock drops. It's a clean story and it's often wrong in the direction people expect — $CRWV squeezed higher into and through its unlock; the float math matters more than the calendar date.

This is the dates-that-matter tracker for the AI-era IPOs that actually get searched, plus the mechanics that decide whether an expiration is a non-event or a real overhang. Two are already behind us, one is the live catalyst, and one isn't a lockup at all.

The dates, at a glance

| Ticker | Company | IPO / listing | Lockup length | Expiration | Status | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | $CRWV | CoreWeave | Mar 27, 2025 | 180-day | Aug 14, 2025 (accelerated) | Expired | | $CRCL | Circle | Jun 5, 2025 | 180-day | Dec 2, 2025 (partial Aug) | Expired | | $CBRS | Cerebras | May 14, 2026 | 180-day | ~mid-Nov 2026 | Upcoming | | $NBIS | Nebius | Oct 21, 2024 (relisting) | n/a | no IPO lockup | n/a |

Dates are from public reporting and company disclosures; the precise trigger for any individual name lives in its S-1. See the source caveat below.

How an IPO lockup actually expires

A lockup is the contractual period — almost always 180 days — during which pre-IPO holders (founders, employees, VCs) agree not to sell. The detail almost everyone misses: the modern lockup rarely runs the full 180 days. It expires on the earlier of two triggers:

1. 180 calendar days from the IPO (or from the end of the IPO month), and
2. A set number of trading days after the first post-IPO earnings release — typically the close of trading on the second trading day after the company reports the quarter.

That earnings-clause is why "180 days from IPO" is usually the wrong date. It almost always pulls the real expiration earlier, onto the first earnings print. CoreWeave is the textbook case.

CoreWeave (CRWV) — expired Aug 14, 2025

$CRWV priced its IPO on March 27, 2025. The 180-day clock from end-of-March would have landed the expiration around September 24, 2025 — but the lockup agreement terminated on the second trading day after CoreWeave announced Q2 2025 earnings. Because that print came on August 12, 2025, the restricted period ended at the close on August 14, 2025, roughly six weeks early.

The instructive part: despite the "supply flood" narrative, CoreWeave's tape did not simply roll over on the unlock. Float dynamics, short interest, and demand for the name dominated the calendar event. The lesson generalizes — an expiration is a supply event, and supply only matters relative to demand and the size of the freed float.

Track it live: /stocks/crwv.

Circle (CRCL) — expired Dec 2, 2025

$CRCL IPO'd on June 5, 2025 (34,000,000 shares, a ~$1.05B offering). Its full lockup ran to the earlier of two trading days after the Q3 (Sep 30) earnings or 180 days — December 2, 2025. Circle also saw a staggered early release: roughly 11.5 million shares became sellable around August 13, 2025 under an early-release provision, well ahead of the main date.

Staggered releases are increasingly common and they blunt the "single cliff" framing — when supply leaks out in tranches, no one date carries the full overhang.

Track it live: /stocks/crcl.

Cerebras (CBRS) — the live one, ~mid-November 2026

This is the only upcoming unlock of the four. $CBRS began trading on Nasdaq on May 14, 2026. A standard 180-day lockup runs to approximately mid-November 2026.

But — exactly as with CoreWeave and Circle — expect the customary early-release clause tied to Cerebras's first post-IPO earnings to govern the effective date, which can pull it meaningfully earlier than the November calendar mark. The exact trigger language is in the April 2026 S-1; confirm there before treating any single date as final.

Why it's worth watching: insider holdings are concentrated and large (the CEO and CTO alone hold multi-billion-dollar stakes at the offer price), so the freed float at expiration is material. For the structural read on where Cerebras sits, see Cerebras' S&P fast-track and its 86% customer concentration and the AI Compute Accelerators bubble.

Track it live: /stocks/cbrs.

Nebius (NBIS) — there is no IPO lockup

If you searched "$NBIS lockup expiration," the honest answer corrects the premise: $NBIS didn't have a US IPO. Nebius Group is the renamed successor to Yandex N.V. after it divested its Russian assets; Nasdaq resumed trading in the shares on October 21, 2024, following a suspension that began in February 2022. A relisting of already-public shares doesn't create a fresh 180-day IPO lockup the way a primary offering does.

There can still be resale registrations or share-issuance restrictions tied to specific transactions (capital raises, the divestment mechanics), but those aren't a conventional IPO lockup cliff. If you're watching $NBIS supply, the variable is secondary offerings, not a lockup expiration date.

Track it live: /stocks/nbis.

What to watch

• $CBRS first post-IPO earnings date — the likely accelerator of its lockup; the print, not the November calendar date, probably sets the effective expiration.
• Freed-float size, not the date — a lockup matters in proportion to the shares released versus average daily volume. A large unlock into thin liquidity is the real overhang; a small one is noise.
• Staggered vs cliff releases — like Circle's August partial, early-release tranches spread supply and soften any single date.
• Demand context — CoreWeave's squeeze is the reminder that an unlock is only half the equation; index inclusion, short interest, and AI-capex sentiment can swamp the supply event.

To trade any of these from a US retail account, see /stack/ibkr. Rule-based alerts on price and volume around catalyst dates are part of /pro.

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Live data on these tickers: /stocks/cbrs · /stocks/crwv · /stocks/crcl · /stocks/nbis — price, ETF holdings, bubble correlation, bot positions.

Bubble context: /bubbles/semiconductors — the AI Compute Accelerators cluster $CBRS belongs to and how it's moving.

QuantAbundancia is educational research. Nothing here is investment advice. See /disclosures.