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The loudest feedback on Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chairman came from the bond market. Just look at the Treasury yield curve. U.S. debt maturing in 10-years now yields only 0.7663 percentage points more than debt maturing in 2 years.
Bonds are in the driver's seat as Kevin Warsh chairs his first Fed meeting. Look at the yield or interest rate on the 2-year note, which is up strongly by 0.097 percentage points. Higher yields on a shorter-dated note suggest the bond market is readying to see a rate hike by the Fed sometime this year.
The stock market was rising ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting press conference. The Dow was up just 135 points, or 0.3%, after hitting another record on Tuesday. The Nasdaq was up 0.4%.
Treasury yields tick higher ahead of the first interest rate decision under Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Rates are expected to remain unchanged. Investors are curious about how Warsh will change the central bank's communications with the public and its forward guidance.
Demand for Treasuries picks up, sending yields lower, as details of the announced peace deal with Iran remain unclear and the first two-day Fed meeting with Warsh as chairman starts. Oil prices fall nearly 5% and the WSJ Dollar Index is flat.
Stocks were mixed at the open on Tuesday as Wall Street looked through lower oil prices and toward the start of the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting. The Dow rose 315 points, or 0.6%. Any close higher would be a fresh record close for the Dow.
Treasury yields and the dollar slip as President Trump and Iran agree to sign a peace deal later this week while markets brace for the first Fed meeting under Chairman Warsh. The U.S.-Iran pact is expected to restore normal oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
News of a deal between Washington and Tehran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz has prompted investors to pare back bets on higher rates this morning. The thinking: If oil starts flowing more freely, energy prices would likely fall, reducing inflationary pressure and giving the Fed less reason to increase rates. It's a reversal from just a week ago, when investors were still digesting news of a stronger-than-expected May jobs report.
Treasury yields and the dollar rise amid hotter-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation and as President Trump renews military threats against Iran. May PPI was 1.1%, matching April's advance and beating WSJ consensus of 0.
The stock market’s slide continued on Wednesday after the latest inflation report failed to rouse Wall Street. The Dow fell 340 points, or 0.7%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note was down to 4.12%.
Treasury yields and the dollar are little changed from Tuesday, as U.S. inflation meets expectations and the war in Iran flares up. The 12-month May CPI accelerates to 4.2% from 3.8% in April. Ex-energy and food, core inflation is a milder 2.
Stock futures were still trading lower after the consumer price index for May matched expectations. The headline CPI rose at a 4.2% annual rate, which was in line with the consensus among economists. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 2.9% annual rate, which was also in line with expectations.
Investors cautiously return to bond markets, sending Treasury yields slightly lower and softening some of the selloff triggered by Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs report. The dollar follows a similar path.
The inflation fears sparking Friday's selloff propelled the 2-year Treasury yield to its level since Feb. 2025. The 2-year note settled at 4.160%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.537%. Investors dumped bonds after a hot jobs report rekindled the possibility of rate hikes this year.
The hot May jobs report added to the inflation concerns that have increasingly fueled Wall Street's bets that rate hikes may be more likely than cuts this year. Futures markets Friday suggested a roughly 58% likelihood of at least one rate hike by year's end, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Stock futures kept falling after a hot jobs report sent bond yields higher. Dow futures were flat. S&P 500 futures were down 0.6%. Nasdaq 100 futures was down 1.3%. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, which was well above expectations at 105,000 jobs.
Bonds might not be the safety net they used to be if inflation stays high.
Treasury yields rise as Fed governor Waller turns hawkish and U.S. consumer sentiment falls more than expected. Waller says a prolonged Middle East conflict increases the risk of energy inflation spreading across the economy, hence the Fed should stop signaling a rate cut as its most likely next move.
Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate average rose 0.15 percentage point to 6.51%, the biggest weekly gain since late March and the highest rate since the week of August 28, 2025. Geopolitical uncertainty and concerns about inflation are among the factors dragging Treasury yields higher—and, by extension, mortgage rates. The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund, which tracks home builders, was down about 1.3%, while the 10-year Treasury yield, which informs the direction of mortgage rates, was 0.028 percentage point higher, to 4.620%.
Treasury yields give back some of their overnight increases as markets wait for a U.S.-Iran peace deal while U.S. indicators support the Fed's wait-and-see approach. Weekly requests for unemployment benefits decline to 209,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000, versus WSJ consensus of 210,000.
The Treasury selloff takes a break, causing yields to fall slightly as markets worry about the inflationary consequences of the U.S.-Iran standoff. Oil futures slip, but remain high enough to keep policymakers on their toes.
The selloff in U.S. government bonds has paused for now, but it’s gotten Wall Street to ask: How much more turmoil would it take to push President Trump to soften his stance on Iran? The textbook example took place in April last year, when a messy sell-off in the bond market led Trump to pause sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. “Judging by the post-'Liberation Day’ episode last spring, market conditions might need to get considerably worse to generate a similar full-scale retreat,” Capital Economics wrote in a research note Tuesday.
Interest rates, economic growth expectations, inflation trends, and credit conditions often determine which parts of the market lead and which fall behind. Dow Industrials trading near the very round 50,000 level is beginning to resemble a potential double top relative to the February peak. Bearish RSI divergence, marked by lower highs in April and May even as the Dow pushed upward, suggests upside momentum is fading.
Rising Treasury yields are pressuring global stocks and forcing investors to rethink expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Hotter-than-expected consumer and wholesale price readings this week have rattled investors, who were already fretting about the war in the Middle East driving up fuel costs. President Donald Trump said overnight that the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz open “at all,” adding to worries that the stalemate between the U.S. and Iran could drag on.
The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is rising toward its highest level in nearly a year, as rising oil prices fan fears about inflation again. The yield topped 4.54% in early trading this morning, as Brent crude futures rose above $109 barrel. President Trump's summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded this morning, and while Trump said both he and Xi want the war to end, the meeting publicly yielded little in the way of concrete steps toward a resolution.
Demand for Treasuries picks up overnight, and yields fall, as President Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping amid U.S. inflation jitters. Weekly jobless claims stay with a long-standing range, rising to 211,000 from a downwardly revised 199,000.
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