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Strong Jobs Report Pushes Fed Closer to Hike
Barrons.com15d agoneutral
Strong Jobs Report Pushes Fed Closer to Hike

With the U.S. economy gaining 162,000 jobs in August and unemployment remaining on a steady course, Fed officials won't need to worry as much about labor conditions when weighing the possibility of raising interest rates later this month. If August's jobs growth had been weak again, it might have raised concerns that the economy wasn't strong enough for higher interest rates.

Yields Climb After Jobs Data Beats Expectations
The Wall Street Journal15d agobullish
Yields Climb After Jobs Data Beats Expectations

Treasury yields are climbing after a hotter-than-expected jobs report that analysts said increases the chances the Federal Reserve will lift short-term rates at its next meeting. The 2-year yield, which often rises and falls with traders' expectations for short-term rates set by the central bank, was recently trading around 4.

Stock Futures Drop on Strong Jobs Report
Barrons.com15d agobearish
Stock Futures Drop on Strong Jobs Report

Stocks pulled back after the August jobs report came in strong. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.2%, or 129 points, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2%. Tech stocks held onto modest gains with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.

Dow Adds 650 Points in Midday Rally
Barrons.com16d agobullish
Dow Adds 650 Points in Midday Rally

Stocks climbed as Wall Street let out a sigh of relief that bond yields ticked lower and the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike fell. The S&P 500 gained 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.

What’s Moving Markets Today?
The Wall Street Journal16d agoneutral
What’s Moving Markets Today?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains in morning trading as the odds of a Fed rate hike plunged, geopolitical unrest continued and Nvidia kept acquiring. Here is what is driving the markets today: The Fed’s will-they-won’t-they rate hike: The odds of a Fed rate hike this month are now a coin flip, according to CME FedWatch.

Treasury Yields Extend Decline as Odds of Fed Hike Fall
Barrons.com16d agobearish
Treasury Yields Extend Decline as Odds of Fed Hike Fall

Treasury yields are on pace for a second consecutive daily decline, as markets trim odds of an interest rate increase this month to 50% from 63%. The drop in yields happens even as the factors driving them to recent highs remain in place.

Rising Yields Reflect Strong Economy, Says Fed’s Williams
Barrons.com16d agoneutral
Rising Yields Reflect Strong Economy, Says Fed’s Williams

The market is pricing in a rate increase as the most likely outcome at the central bank's upcoming meeting, according to CME Fed Watch. Odds the Fed will announce an increase in rates on Sept. 16 ticked lower to 64% from 66% on Wednesday, though were still significantly higher than they were just last week. The slight pullback came after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the recent rise in Treasury yields reflected a strong economy and signaled a wait-and-see approach to September's meeting.

Fed’s Williams: Case for a Rate Hike Isn’t Yet Firm
The Wall Street Journal17d agoneutral
Fed’s Williams: Case for a Rate Hike Isn’t Yet Firm

New York Fed President John Williams indicated that he doesn't see clear-cut evidence right now that the Fed must raise interest rates to respond to persistent inflation. In an interview with CNBC, Williams said the current spate of rising prices is due in part to passing causes: one-time price increases from the Trump administration's tariffs and higher energy prices from the Iran conflict. It is not yet certain, he said, that those trends are snowballing into a broader bout of inflation that the Fed must respond to.

Odds of Fed Rate Hike in September Hit 70%
The Wall Street Journal17d agoneutral
Odds of Fed Rate Hike in September Hit 70%

Investors are now pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting. That is up from 37% a week ago, according to CME Group data. The jump in rate expectations is a major driver behind the rise in U.

Why Higher Bond Yields Matter
The Wall Street Journal18d agoneutral
Why Higher Bond Yields Matter

A sustained move higher in yields will have consequences well beyond Wall Street. One of the most direct victims is the government itself, which will be forced to pay higher interest rates on its growing pile of debt as older bonds mature and are replaced by new ones. Over the past half-century, federal interest costs averaged 2.1% of GDP.

The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike, According to Traders
The Wall Street Journal18d agoneutral
The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike, According to Traders

Traders are pricing in a more than 66% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point later this month, according to CME data. Expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates jumped after Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole on Friday.

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.76%, Highest Since Early 2025
Barrons.com19d agoneutral
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.76%, Highest Since Early 2025

The 10-year Treasury yield edged up further on Monday to trade as high as 4.755%, the highest intraday value since January 15, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Yields rise when bond prices fall--essentially investors are now paying less money to buy that same fixed payout on a long bond. Yields had risen on Friday as well after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech that signaled higher rates are here to stay.

Stocks Are Picking Up Steam Despite Rising Rate-Hike Odds
Barrons.com22d agoneutral
Stocks Are Picking Up Steam Despite Rising Rate-Hike Odds

The stock market picked up steam even as odds of a September interest-rate hike rose in the wake of Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Warsh's first speech at Jackson Hole since taking over as Fed chair had traders upping bets on a September rate hike.

Stocks Whipsaw as Warsh Speaks
Barrons.com22d agoneutral
Stocks Whipsaw as Warsh Speaks

Stocks were struggling to find direction on Friday after Kevin Warsh began his Jackson Hole speech. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%. The tone of Warsh's speech was more hawkish than his prior comments since taking over as chairman.

What Warsh Might (or Might Not) Say in Jackson Hole Today
The Wall Street Journal22d agoneutral
What Warsh Might (or Might Not) Say in Jackson Hole Today

How much will Kevin Warsh say in Jackson Hole today? Today marks his first major address since then, but some market watchers are skeptical the tight-lipped chairman will tip his hands on rates. “The irony is that he now faces pressure to communicate more clearly to address questions around the Fed’s credibility,” wrote Hetal Mehta, chief economist at the British wealth manager St. James’s Place.

Dow Rises Ahead of Warsh's Big Speech
Barrons.com22d agoneutral
Dow Rises Ahead of Warsh's Big Speech

Stocks weren’t moving much at the open on Friday, as Wall Street awaited Kevin Warsh’s looming Jackson Hole speech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%.

Treasury Rally May Extend After Jackson Hole
Barrons.com22d agobullish
Treasury Rally May Extend After Jackson Hole

Treasuries have rallied heading into Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chairman. The bond market typically sells off in the lead-up to the Fed's annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. From 2011 to 2025, 10-year Treasury yields rose 5 basis points or 0.05 percentage points, on average, in the week prior to Jackson Hole, according to Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO.

📊 Hot Bond Yield Summer
The Wall Street Journal23d agoneutral
📊 Hot Bond Yield Summer

Think Treasurys are having a rough summer? It's even uglier abroad. Countries with large debt burdens—France, Italy, the U.K., Japan—have come under the heaviest pressure in recent months. The forces fueling the overseas rout include renewed inflation fears, fiscal woes in France, pressure on the Japanese yen and budget worries in the U.

Bond Selloff Resumes After July Inflation Data
Barrons.com24d agobearish
Bond Selloff Resumes After July Inflation Data

The Fed’s closely-watched inflation gauge revealed prices were a bit higher than expected in July--bond traders don't like that. After taking a breather on Tuesday, bonds are selling off yet again. Yield were up across the board on Wednesday morning; both the 2-year and 10-year yield were up by around 0.

Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Futures Fall
Barrons.com25d agobearish
Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Futures Fall

Treasury yields fall alongside oil prices as the U.S. increases sanctions on Iran. Crude futures fall 3% and Brent trades below $90. The WSJ Dollar Index gives away overnight gains and is flat, while Bitcoin briefly jumps above $80,000, amid growing concerns that Washington will tolerate high inflation and expanding fiscal deficits.