News

The Federal Reserve’s long-awaited rate hikes are unlikely to rescue the beaten-down Treasury market. Long-dated U.S. government bonds, as measured by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund, have generated 4.4% in losses this year on a total-return basis. Consider this: The 10-year breakeven rate, which measures future inflation expectations, has only risen 0.09 percentage points this year through Wednesday, even as the 10-year Treasury yield has risen nearly a full percentage point to 5.02%, a 19-year high.

Inflation is the traditional enemy of bonds, because it makes future returns worth less. But there’s another factor in play now.

Short-term notes tend to be highly influenced by the Federal Reserve. Long-term bonds have been responding to something else.

Crude oil has fallen back into the $60-$70 range, inflation fears are fading, and traders are pricing in a less restrictive Fed. Could Treasury yields be the next market to catch up? We break down the fundamentals, seasonals, and technicals, pointing toward lower yields into early September.

A stronger-than-expected April jobs report gave investors a second straight upside surprise, a welcome development after an uneven stretch for the labor market. Payrolls rose while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, although average hourly earnings were a bit light, writes Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro US.

The Federal Reserve has already trimmed its policy rate by 0.75 percentage points over the past year, leaving the upper bound at 3.75%. The question facing rate-sensitive sectors is what happens if the cutting cycle continues. Three exchange-traded funds sit at the center of that question: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), the ... Rate Cuts Are Coming: Here’s How to Position TLT, XLRE, and ITB Now