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Intel options volume hit nearly 3 times its monthly average Thursday as tech stocks rebounded from the Fed's first rate increase since 2023

The key “affordability” rate briefly touched its highest level since 2007 on Monday.

With oil prices pushing up to $104.50 a barrel as the U.S.-Iran conflict turns regional and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.99%, two trip wires for the S&P 500 are flashing red. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, known as the S&P 500 fear gauge, has climbed to 17.8, but remains well below the 20 level that signals a loss of composure. Things have gotten so bad in the Middle East that a window may be opening for improvement, according to Marko Papic, chief investment strategist at BCA Research.

U.S. stocks could be heading toward a tricky patch over the next two months, with midterm elections in focus, longer-dated Treasury bond yields trading at multiyear highs, and volatility readings suppressed. The equal weighted index of the is now up more than 17% for the year, volatility gauges are trading at the lowest levels since early January, and data suggest fading bets on an autumn Federal Reserve rate hike.

Stocks clawed back losses by the end of the week, putting the S&P 500 on track for a positive week as a U.S.–Iran deal moved within reach.

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is hovering near 18 on Wednesday morning, up roughly 1% as traders position ahead of the Federal Reserve’s afternoon policy decision and mega-cap technology earnings. The fear gauge closed at 17.83 on Tuesday, sitting inside the historically normal 15 to 20 band but well off the 31.05 peak hit on ... VIX Climbs as Fed Decision and Mega-Cap Earnings Keep Investors on Edge