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Stocks Bend, but Don’t Break, in Head-Spinning September. More Tests Are Coming.
Barrons.com1d agoneutral
Stocks Bend, but Don’t Break, in Head-Spinning September. More Tests Are Coming.

A massive surge in Treasury bond yields, which lifted 10-year notes to the highest since 2007, paired with a worrying summer rally in global crude prices that has oil trading firmly north of $100 a barrel, leaned heavily on stocks but didn’t tip them over. A Federal Reserve interest-rate hike, coupled with hawkish language and quickening inflation forecasts, also came and went, with stocks posting their strongest gains in six weeks and an index of the Magnificent Seven tech giants coming within half a point of the all-time high it reached in late May. Tech stocks, in fact, have largely weathered a series of “end of days” headlines from the AI space, with an index of semiconductor stocks falling around 3.3% over the past month and those in the information technology edging just 1.2% lower despite the torrent of stories tied to apocalyptic AI risks.

💬 Money Quote: Energy Analysts Struggle to Game Out the Iran War
The Wall Street Journal2d agoneutral
💬 Money Quote: Energy Analysts Struggle to Game Out the Iran War

📣 “We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.” —Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan. Part of the problem: What once looked like economic red lines for the U.S. administration, such as gasoline prices and headline inflation numbers, have been crossed—yet the conflict continues.

Investing.com3d agoneutral
JPMorgan Fed scenario analysis: 5 paths for the S&P 500 today

Investing.com -- A clean 25 basis point hike with no forward guidance is the equity market’s best-case outcome from the Federal Reserve’s policy decision today, according to JPMorgan’s scenario analysis — but a signal that rates must go "materially higher" could end the current bull market. JPMorgan laid out five distinct Fed decision paths and their projected impact on the S&P 500, ranging from a 2.0% decline to a 1.0% gain. The outcomes depend heavily on both the mechanical rate action and the

Should JPMorgan’s Long-Dated Callable Debt Push Require Action From JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Investors?
Simply Wall St.4d agoneutral
Should JPMorgan’s Long-Dated Callable Debt Push Require Action From JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Investors?

In recent days, JPMorgan Chase & Co. has issued a flurry of fixed-rate, callable medium-term notes across maturities from 2030 to 2056, while also hosting investor events and making senior appointments in its international technology investment banking franchise. Alongside this funding activity, JPMorgan’s public stance on Federal Reserve policy, market volatility, and the small-business succession gap underscores how the bank is positioning itself at the intersection of higher rates,...

JPMorgan Says Rising Bond Yields Unlikely to Derail Equities as Earnings Momentum Continues
InvestorsHub7d agoneutral
JPMorgan Says Rising Bond Yields Unlikely to Derail Equities as Earnings Momentum Continues

JPMorgan analysts said higher government borrowing costs and inflation remain risks, but continued corporate earnings growth could support equity markets if inflation expectations remain anchored. Key Investor TakeawaysJPMorgan expects earnings momentum to remain an important support for equities despite rising bond yields and renewed inflation pressures.

JPMorgan: Eight Developed-Market Central Banks to Lift Rates Soon
The Wall Street Journal8d agoneutral
JPMorgan: Eight Developed-Market Central Banks to Lift Rates Soon

JPMorgan Chase analysts expect eight of the world's nine developed-market central banks to lift interest rates before the end of the year in efforts to tame sticky inflation and commodity price pressures. In a research note published Thursday, the analysts said they expect rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, as well as from central banks in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Norway and Sweden. JPMorgan said its base case was for the Fed to hold rates next week and lift them in December.

Investing.com11d agoneutral
JPMorgan starts FedEx Freight at Overweight on post-spin turnaround

Investing.com -- In a note to clients on Tuesday, JPMorgan initiated coverage of FedEx Freight with an Overweight rating and a December 2027 price target of $160, arguing the recent spin-off gives North America's largest less-than-truckload carrier room to improve profitability and service as a stand-alone company.

Warsh to Make First Jackson Hole Speech as Fed Chair
Bloomberg27d agoneutral
Warsh to Make First Jackson Hole Speech as Fed Chair

Investors are looking for Kevin Warsh to clarify his views on how the US central bank should react to stubborn inflation when the Federal Reserve chair speaks on Friday at the annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Bond Traders Are Hedging Risk Fed Pivots to Rate Cuts in 2027
Bloomberg31d agobearish
Bond Traders Are Hedging Risk Fed Pivots to Rate Cuts in 2027

Bond traders are changing gears again. After a raft of data helped all but price out interest rate hikes for the rest of the year, wagers in the options market are looking to hedge the risk that the Federal Reserve pivots to cutting rates in 2027.

JPMorgan Sees Further Equity Upside in Second Half as Market Rally Broadens
InvestorsHub36d agobullish
JPMorgan Sees Further Equity Upside in Second Half as Market Rally Broadens

JPMorgan remains positive on equities for the second half of the year, arguing that concerns surrounding geopolitics, inflation, market concentration, the economic cycle and weakness in bonds are unlikely to prevent stocks from advancing further. The bank expects broader participation in the rally, with cyclical and higher-beta areas potentially taking a greater role as the year progresses.