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The VanEck Steel ETF and State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR swung sharply last week as U.S.-Canada tariff tensions escalated

Investing.com -- Canada could not fully meet U.S. aluminium import requirements, even if it redirected all domestic production south of the border, Morgan Stanley said in a research note examining potential tariff relief.

Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs and Century Aluminum could be winners from U.S.-Canada trade talks breaking down. Last week those stocks tumbled on the prospect of a Canada trade deal that would lower U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. New 50% tariffs on a $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, including liquor, electrical equipment and hockey gear, took effect on Saturday.

The U.S. and Canada are reportedly nearing a tentative trade deal that would lower tariffs on certain Canadian steel and aluminum exports from 50% to 25%.

The company is expecting to benefit from the Trump administration’s onshoring program, which offers a reduced tariff rate of 25% for primary aluminum imports as a result of the project. The smelter is slated for completion in 2029.

Century Aluminum (NASDAQ:CENX) used a fireside chat at the Wells Fargo Industrials and Materials Conference to frame its investment case around tight aluminum markets, U.S. and European production exposure, and a planned new smelter in Oklahoma. Timna Tanners, Building Materials and Metals and Mini

The stock market hit new highs amid a win streak. AI and metals led while Google tested support. Palo Alto jumped late on earnings.

Century Aluminum is Thursday's IBD Stock Of The Day as the largest U.S. aluminum producer is humming like rarely before thanks to Trump tariffs and fallout from the Middle East conflict. The good news has legs, which is why CENX stock continued to rise within buy range even amid a report that U.S. and Iranian negotiators see eye-to-eye on a potential 60-day ceasefire. Aluminum prices climbed 0.8% to a four-year-high $3,650 per metric ton and have climbed around 18% since the conflict began Feb. 28, according to CME Group data.

With aluminum at multi-year highs and the impact of tariffs remaining strong, domestic aluminum firms could be positioned to benefit.

Aluminum usually doesn’t get the spotlight like gold or copper, but right now the market is unusually tight. A mix of Middle East supply disruptions, shipping issues, and U.S. tariffs has pushed prices higher and given Alcoa (NYSE:AA) a massive boost. The stock is up nearly 134% over the past year and is now trading close to its highs around $70.

Iran deal doubts hit stocks Thursday, but Nvidia, Tesla were strong. CoreWeave, Rocket Lab, Cloudflare were earnings movers late. The jobs report is on deck.