News

<p>The largest long-term Treasury ETF is down 3.8% this year, erasing most of last year's gain, as inflation and debt worries pressure the long end.</p>

Federal Reserve officials just won't listen to us! We warned them that the economy didn't need the four cuts in the federal funds rate (FFR) at the end of 2024. The Bond Vigilantes agreed with us. Now, we conclude that the Fed has to raise short-term rates to lower long-term rates, writes Ed Yardeni, editor of Yardeni QuickTakes.

For years, Federal Reserve decisions became something of a rubber stamp, with investors focused more on the press conference than the announcement itself. Under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, that dynamic has flipped, observes Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro US.

Michael Burry is warning about a market collision: rising oil prices, an artificial intelligence debt binge and mounting pressure in long-duration Treasuries. "Watch the long bonds," Burry wrote on X Thursday. He cited AI’s "debt explosion," rising inflation volatility, a...

The Fed has been cutting rates, yet long-term Treasury yields are climbing and bond ETFs are swinging wildly in response. Three funds cut through that contradiction in very different ways, and choosing the wrong one right now carries real consequences for your income.

The U.S. 30-year bond futures continue to consolidate in July 2026. Long-term interest rates remain elevated as the legacy of the global pandemic and geopolitical events has caused stubborn inflationary pressures.

After more than a decade of being starved for yield by the Federal Reserve, the bond market is finally offering us a clean, honest 5% return on zero-risk U.S. government debt.

The long-duration iShares 20+ year bond yield ETF dropped on Wednesday after Fed Minutes hinted towards a possibility of a rate hike, while US-Iran risks resurfaced.

Crude oil has fallen back into the $60-$70 range, inflation fears are fading, and traders are pricing in a less restrictive Fed. Could Treasury yields be the next market to catch up? We break down the fundamentals, seasonals, and technicals, pointing toward lower yields into early September.

The pitch for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond BuyWrite Strategy ETF (BATS:TLTW) is seductive in a jittery economy. You collect a distribution rate of 11.7% while sitting on long-dated Treasuries that are supposed to rally the moment the Fed panics and starts cutting. Two things you get paid to wait for, one ticker. TLTW bolts ... This Bond ETF Yields Almost 12%. Can It Surge When the Recession Hits?

In this timely MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast episode, Jim Bianco shares his perspective on the rapidly changing market landscape – including how Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the economy, investor expectations, and the outlook for growth.

U.S. stock markets are mostly headed for a month in the red amid a downbeat streak for technology names.

Mark July 29 on the calendar. That is the next scheduled FOMC decision, and according to JPMorgan Asset Management CIO Bob Michael, every Fed meeting is now live for a potential rate hike, including the one roughly six weeks away. Michael told CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh‘s first meeting delivered ... Circle Your Calendars for July 29. JPMorgan Executive Says Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Could Raise Rates in As Little as Six Weeks.

Did you feel the “Whoosh” on Wednesday? That was stocks tanking after new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting. Hawkish talk and hawkish forecasts caused the odds of an interest rate hike to spike!

Rising inflation and climbing Treasury yields have already pushed investors to shift the narrative from interest rate cuts to potential rate hikes. Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee update made that outcome look a lot more realistic, maintains Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro US.

Prior to the start of the Iran War, President Donald Trump had been feuding with Jerome Powell about cutting interest rates. Despite tremendous capital inflows from tariffs, record-low inflation, and a revived business climate due to cutting bureaucratic Biden-era restrictions, Powell stubbornly refused to cut rates. Kevin Warsh took the Fed chair oath on ... Long Bonds Just Lost Money for a Sixth Straight Year, And One Quiet ETF Is Engineered for the Reversal

The Fed’s new chairman may end up presiding over interest-rate hikes, even though President Donald Trump wants lower rates.

The Fed’s new chairman may end up presiding over interest-rate hikes, even though President Donald Trump wants lower rates.

The May Consumer Price Index was largely in line with expectations, with headline inflation rising 0.5% month-over-month and core CPI up 0.2%, one-tenth below forecasts. But inflation remains the economy's major pain point, regardless of who ultimately absorbs the costs, notes Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.

What hasn’t really moved, however, is the longer end of the bond market, where yields remain elevated and forecasts for Federal Reserve rate hikes are getting increasingly aggressive following last week’s stronger-than-expected payroll data, and ahead of Wednesday’s May inflation readings. The higher yields, which have for the most part echoed market bets on a Fed rate hike before the end of the year, now priced at around 70% by the CME Group’s FedWatch, also seem to be resetting at levels that could make stock markets uncomfortable. Its closest comparison in the bond markets, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills, is holding at around 3.7%.

As we’ve been predicting in recent months, labor market conditions are improving, while inflationary pressures remain elevated. We expect the Federal Reserve will shift to a tightening bias at the June meeting and will probably hike the federal funds rate in July if current trends persist, notes Ed Yardeni, editor of Yardeni QuickTakes.

A 68-year-old retiree who moved $180,000 out of stocks and into the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) in late 2024 was making a directional rate bet. The pitch was clean: lock in a 4.5% long-bond yield before the Federal Reserve cut rates, then collect price appreciation on top of monthly coupons. The 20-year ... If You Hold This 20 Year Treasury ETF You Are Losing Money Even With Yields Up

The May employment data landed with a thud for bond bulls, with implications for Treasury proxies like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT). May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000, the best number since March, when the figure came in at 185,000, and well above expectations. CNBC’s Rick Santelli, reacting on Squawk Box, asked, “Is ... The Jobs Report Released Today Was Great. That’s Bad News for Bond Yields.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) has done something this year that surprises a lot of holders. Despite the Federal Reserve cutting rates 75 basis points over the past 12 months to a 3.75% upper bound, TLT is down about 1% year to date and trades near $85. The long end of the ... Watch This One Number to Know If TLT Will Rally Over the Next 12 Months

Bonds might not be the safety net they used to be if inflation stays high.

Bond yields are up and prices fall, as hotter inflation spurs talk of a Fed rate-hike. This TLT trade bets that yields will further climb.

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve Board announced late Friday that it has appointed Jerome Powell as chair pro tempore, ensuring he will lead the U.S. central bank on an interim basis until his successor, Kevin Warsh, is formally sworn into office.

Rising oil prices are lifting inflation indicators and weighing on bond prices. Sentiment in the U.S. government bond market is bearish, which could explain why the odds favor the upside.

A stronger-than-expected April jobs report gave investors a second straight upside surprise, a welcome development after an uneven stretch for the labor market. Payrolls rose while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, although average hourly earnings were a bit light, writes Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro US.

The Federal Reserve has already trimmed its policy rate by 0.75 percentage points over the past year, leaving the upper bound at 3.75%. The question facing rate-sensitive sectors is what happens if the cutting cycle continues. Three exchange-traded funds sit at the center of that question: the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT), the ... Rate Cuts Are Coming: Here’s How to Position TLT, XLRE, and ITB Now