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The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains in morning trading as the odds of a Fed rate hike plunged, geopolitical unrest continued and Nvidia kept acquiring. Here is what is driving the markets today: The Fed’s will-they-won’t-they rate hike: The odds of a Fed rate hike this month are now a coin flip, according to CME FedWatch.

Stocks were little changed as treasury yields stayed elevated.

Oil prices are settling after President Trump told reporters yesterday that he doesn't expect the latest round of fighting in the Middle East to last "too long." Fielding questions in the Oval Office, Trump was also asked about the recent jump in oil prices on the back of the attacks have flared in the Middle East this week.

The market is pricing in a rate increase as the most likely outcome at the central bank's upcoming meeting, according to CME Fed Watch. Odds the Fed will announce an increase in rates on Sept. 16 ticked lower to 64% from 66% on Wednesday, though were still significantly higher than they were just last week. The slight pullback came after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said the recent rise in Treasury yields reflected a strong economy and signaled a wait-and-see approach to September's meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose moderately today even as worries about rising bond yields and a surge in oil prices are top of traders’ minds. Here is what is driving the markets today: Bonds, treasuries and a global selloff: The bond market is dramatic again today.

Bond yields stayed elevated on Wednesday as oil prices hovered near $95 a barrel, spurring worries of higher inflation.

New York Fed President John Williams indicated that he doesn't see clear-cut evidence right now that the Fed must raise interest rates to respond to persistent inflation. In an interview with CNBC, Williams said the current spate of rising prices is due in part to passing causes: one-time price increases from the Trump administration's tariffs and higher energy prices from the Iran conflict. It is not yet certain, he said, that those trends are snowballing into a broader bout of inflation that the Fed must respond to.

Great earnings are now old news. The next market hurdles are the jobs report, CPI, and the Fed’s rate decision.

Investors are now pricing in a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve raises rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting. That is up from 37% a week ago, according to CME Group data. The jump in rate expectations is a major driver behind the rise in U.

US stocks edged lower on Wednesday as rising oil prices and bond yields sent ripple effects across markets.

Great earnings are now old news. The next market hurdles are the jobs report, CPI, and the Fed’s rate decision.

Don't ignore rising bond yields!

Stocks slipped in early trading on Tuesday as long-dated bond yields rose and speculation of a rate hike this year grew.

A sustained move higher in yields will have consequences well beyond Wall Street. One of the most direct victims is the government itself, which will be forced to pay higher interest rates on its growing pile of debt as older bonds mature and are replaced by new ones. Over the past half-century, federal interest costs averaged 2.1% of GDP.

Traders are pricing in a more than 66% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point later this month, according to CME data. Expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates jumped after Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole on Friday.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged up further on Monday to trade as high as 4.755%, the highest intraday value since January 15, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Yields rise when bond prices fall--essentially investors are now paying less money to buy that same fixed payout on a long bond. Yields had risen on Friday as well after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech that signaled higher rates are here to stay.

The stock market picked up steam even as odds of a September interest-rate hike rose in the wake of Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Warsh's first speech at Jackson Hole since taking over as Fed chair had traders upping bets on a September rate hike.

Stocks were struggling to find direction on Friday after Kevin Warsh began his Jackson Hole speech. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%. The tone of Warsh's speech was more hawkish than his prior comments since taking over as chairman.

How much will Kevin Warsh say in Jackson Hole today? Today marks his first major address since then, but some market watchers are skeptical the tight-lipped chairman will tip his hands on rates. “The irony is that he now faces pressure to communicate more clearly to address questions around the Fed’s credibility,” wrote Hetal Mehta, chief economist at the British wealth manager St. James’s Place.

Stocks weren’t moving much at the open on Friday, as Wall Street awaited Kevin Warsh’s looming Jackson Hole speech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%.

All eyes turned to the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak.

Think Treasurys are having a rough summer? It's even uglier abroad. Countries with large debt burdens—France, Italy, the U.K., Japan—have come under the heaviest pressure in recent months. The forces fueling the overseas rout include renewed inflation fears, fiscal woes in France, pressure on the Japanese yen and budget worries in the U.

A broad stock market slide followed a snap-back in yields. So much for that bond market rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 698 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1%.

Treasury yields are choppy after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that upcoming buybacks of longer-term bonds could be more than $4 billion per operation. Appearing on CNBC a day after the Treasury announced that it would increase buybacks of longer-term bonds, Bessent said the government has “a big toolkit” to bring down yields, which he said don’t currently reflect economic fundamentals. Treasury yields initially fell after Bessent started speaking but then retracted that move.

A: Analysts say that buying back more government bonds could mute the march higher in longer-term yields. At Dutch bank ING, Padhraic Garvey says "the Treasury could double the long tenor buyback sizes again, and again if needed". At Japanese bank MUFG, analysts say "the US Treasury could play a key role here by of course addressing the ever-expending fiscal deficit...We all know that’s not going to happen."

Gold (GC=F) December futures opened at $4,391.40 per troy ounce on Wednesday, August 19, 2026, down 0.7% from Tuesday's closing price.

Treasury yields are down sharply after the Treasury Department said it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for longer-term notes and bonds. Treasury's buyback operations are meant to improve liquidity in the bond market by reducing the amount of older securities. Treasury's website states that the agency "does not currently intend to use buyback operations to mitigate episodes of acute market stress."

Treasury yields rise while the U.S.-Iran standoff remains unresolved and crude prices edge higher. In coming days, investors will be awaiting Fed minutes Wednesday and Chairman Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech later this month.

The stock market was on the road to nowhere on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were flat. The Nasdaq Composite was down slightly. The S&P hit a fresh closing high on Friday and ran out of gas.

Treasury yields lose some of their overnight momentum but remain elevated as rising oil prices rekindle inflation fears. The U.S.-Iran standoff shows no signs of abating and Brent crude approaches $90 a barrel.