News

Treasury yields continue to tick higher alongside oil prices, putting the 10-year yield close to its 2026 high point. The yield on the 10-year note climbed to 4.648% in morning trading, according to Tradeweb, just shy of the 4.687% intraday high that it reached on May 19. The uptick in oil prices is making investors more worried about the inflation outlook, with traders now seeing a roughly 50% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates twice before the end of the year.

Treasury's fell sending yields higher, concluding a day of light U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. Brent crude futures added 2% to settle above $90 a barrel.

Oil futures were on the rise as the war in Iran drags on. Brent futures climbed 2.2% to $91.18 per barrel while WTI futures rose 2.4% to $84.46. Both Brent and WTI are on track for their highest settlement in over a month, Dow Jones Market Data showed.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, one of Wall Street’s most venerated leaders and a man once on the shortlist of names to become Treasury Secretary, offered some straight talk on the value of U.S. debt and the impact of deficit spending this week. Dimon, who at the age of 70 is nearing the end of his two decade tenure at the helm of the world’s biggest bank but remains the market’s central conscience, told Wilfred Frost’s Master Investor Podcast that he wouldn’t be a buyer of At least not at current levels. Dimon said the government can handle the issue one of two ways, either through a bipartisan effort similar to the Simpson-Bowles Commission of 2010, proposed by President Barack Obama and led by Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, or “waiting for it to become a problem.”

The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Tuesday, Jul, 21 2026 US stock futures are pointing slightly higher this morning, as investors weigh softer US inflation against rising global interest rate worries. The US 10 year Treasury yield has eased to about 4.52% after cooler price data, which helps reduce pressure on borrowing costs for households and companies. At the same time, import prices rose 0.3% in June instead of falling, a reminder that the cost of goods coming into the country is...

The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Monday, Jul, 20 2026 US stock futures are pointing lower this morning, with E mini S&P 500 contracts down around 1%, as investors weigh falling bond yields against a cooling housing backdrop. The US 10 year Treasury yield has slipped to about 4.5% after softer inflation readings. In plain terms, this means borrowing costs in financial markets are easing a little even as the debate over the Federal Reserve's next move continues. At the same time,...

After more than a decade of being starved for yield by the Federal Reserve, the bond market is finally offering us a clean, honest 5% return on zero-risk U.S. government debt.

Rising oil prices and escalating attacks on Iran moved mortgage rates higher.

Treasury yields rise as the number of people filing for jobless insurance in the U.S. falls to 208,000 from an upwardly revised 216,000. Economists surveyed by WSJ expected an increase to 218,000. The July Philadelphia Fed business activity gauge jumps to 41.

Fresh signs of cooling U.S. inflation revive demand for Treasuries, pushing yields down. June producer price index falls 0.3%. Ex-food and energy, PPI rises 0.2%. Both measures come below WSJ consensus forecast.

Bond yields dropped sharply and Nasdaq futures climbed after a cooler-than-expected inflation report this morning. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index rose, while those tied to the Dow industrials edged lower.

European bond yields are forging higher, in line with moves in U.S. Treasurys, as renewed hostilities in the Mideast push oil prices higher and revive inflation worries. The yield on the 10-year U.K. gilt has risen above 5%, after ending last week below 4.

Treasury yields rise as renewed tensions in the Middle East raise uncertainties. U.S. and Iran exchange fire over the weekend and crude prices rise 4%, clouding the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

Treasury yields rise, while the dollar slips. Fears of escalation in the Middle East recede and oil prices are stable above pre-war levels, following Thursday's decline. Treasury auctions this week showed no signs of declining demand.

The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Friday, Jul, 10 2026 US stock futures are pointing slightly higher this morning, with S&P 500 contracts up about 0.2%, as investors weigh stubbornly high bond yields and softer signs from consumer borrowing. The US 10 year Treasury yield is holding near 4.6%, which keeps the cost of mortgages, car loans, and business borrowing elevated and keeps talk of at least one more Federal Reserve rate hike alive. At the same time, US consumer credit in May...

The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Thursday, Jul, 9 2026 US stock futures are pointing lower this morning, with E mini S&P 500 contracts down about 0.8%, as investors react to a mix of higher borrowing costs and fresh inflation worries. The US 10 year Treasury yield is sitting near 4.58%, a 4 week high, which means mortgages, car loans and business borrowing could stay expensive. At the same time, one year US inflation expectations are at 3.7%, and a drop in US oil inventories is...

Bond yields rose on Wednesday as oil prices surged amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.

U.S.-Iran tensions pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys to its highest intraday level since May this morning. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached as high as 4.583%, according to Tradeweb, its highest level since May 22.

Global bond yields are jumping on the back of higher oil prices this morning after President Trump said he thinks the ceasefire with Iran is "over." European bonds saw some of the biggest moves, with benchmark 10-year bond yields in the U.

"Warsh explicitly avoided policy guidance in the statement and press conference, so it seems unlikely that he would permit such guidance via the minutes," writes Englander, head of G-10 foreign-exchange research at the bank. Englander's prediction chimes with the way that Warsh, who spent more than a decade arguing that the Fed should say less, has approached his new post so far.

Stocks were up to start Thursday’s session after the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly in June. The Dow rose 370 points, or 0.7%. The U.S. economy added fewer jobs than economists expected in June, but unemployment dipped to 4.2%.

Treasury yields and the dollar slide as the U.S. economy creates fewer jobs than expected in June. The BLS reports jobs growth at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus of 115,000. May's figure is revised down to 129,000 from 172,000, and April's to 148,000 from 179,000.

Treasury yields rise, on path for a quarterly increase. An agreement to fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive and oil prices edge higher. Fed funds futures price at least one Fed hike this year, according to CME.

Demand for U.S. government debt weakens and Treasury yields rise, as U.S. and Iran agree to halt fighting while negotiating a deal to fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices edge higher but remain around pre-war levels.

Treasury yields and the dollar ease as oil prices fall 3% and markets recalibrate the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Odds of one rate increase this year remain high, priced at 42% on CME's FedWatch tool, while odds of a second hike decline to 28% from 34% a week ago, as inflation forecasts cool down.

Bond yields dropped and stocks kept rising after the Federal Reserve’s benchmark inflation gauge matched expectations. The core personal expenditures price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is watched closely by the central bank, rose at a 0.

Treasury yields decline as U.S.-Iran peace talks continue and oil futures fall 3%. May U.S. new home sales, due at 10 a.m. ET, are expected to increase 1.6%, after contracting by 6.2% in April, according to a WSJ survey.

Treasury yields cool down a little while the dollar rises as U.S.-Iran talks inch forward. Crude prices slip, as the U.S. cleared the way for Iran to sell oil in dollars, including to U.S. buyers, as part of the negotiations to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury yields and the dollar rise amid tense negotiations in the Middle East. Oil prices decline as mediators say U.S.-Iran talks will continue this week, following a rocky start. The long disruption in global oil supplies, however, keeps inflation fears elevated.

The loudest feedback on Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed chairman came from the bond market. Just look at the Treasury yield curve. U.S. debt maturing in 10-years now yields only 0.7663 percentage points more than debt maturing in 2 years.