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Why Higher Bond Yields Matter
The Wall Street Journal18d agoneutral
Why Higher Bond Yields Matter

A sustained move higher in yields will have consequences well beyond Wall Street. One of the most direct victims is the government itself, which will be forced to pay higher interest rates on its growing pile of debt as older bonds mature and are replaced by new ones. Over the past half-century, federal interest costs averaged 2.1% of GDP.

The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike, According to Traders
The Wall Street Journal18d agoneutral
The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike, According to Traders

Traders are pricing in a more than 66% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point later this month, according to CME data. Expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates jumped after Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole on Friday.

10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.76%, Highest Since Early 2025
Barrons.com19d agoneutral
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 4.76%, Highest Since Early 2025

The 10-year Treasury yield edged up further on Monday to trade as high as 4.755%, the highest intraday value since January 15, 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Yields rise when bond prices fall--essentially investors are now paying less money to buy that same fixed payout on a long bond. Yields had risen on Friday as well after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech that signaled higher rates are here to stay.

Stocks Are Picking Up Steam Despite Rising Rate-Hike Odds
Barrons.com22d agoneutral
Stocks Are Picking Up Steam Despite Rising Rate-Hike Odds

The stock market picked up steam even as odds of a September interest-rate hike rose in the wake of Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Warsh's first speech at Jackson Hole since taking over as Fed chair had traders upping bets on a September rate hike.

Stocks Whipsaw as Warsh Speaks
Barrons.com22d agoneutral
Stocks Whipsaw as Warsh Speaks

Stocks were struggling to find direction on Friday after Kevin Warsh began his Jackson Hole speech. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%. The tone of Warsh's speech was more hawkish than his prior comments since taking over as chairman.

What Warsh Might (or Might Not) Say in Jackson Hole Today
The Wall Street Journal22d agoneutral
What Warsh Might (or Might Not) Say in Jackson Hole Today

How much will Kevin Warsh say in Jackson Hole today? Today marks his first major address since then, but some market watchers are skeptical the tight-lipped chairman will tip his hands on rates. “The irony is that he now faces pressure to communicate more clearly to address questions around the Fed’s credibility,” wrote Hetal Mehta, chief economist at the British wealth manager St. James’s Place.

Dow Rises Ahead of Warsh's Big Speech
Barrons.com22d agoneutral
Dow Rises Ahead of Warsh's Big Speech

Stocks weren’t moving much at the open on Friday, as Wall Street awaited Kevin Warsh’s looming Jackson Hole speech. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%.

Treasury Rally May Extend After Jackson Hole
Barrons.com22d agobullish
Treasury Rally May Extend After Jackson Hole

Treasuries have rallied heading into Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech as Fed chairman. The bond market typically sells off in the lead-up to the Fed's annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. From 2011 to 2025, 10-year Treasury yields rose 5 basis points or 0.05 percentage points, on average, in the week prior to Jackson Hole, according to Vail Hartman, U.S. rates strategist at BMO.

📊 Hot Bond Yield Summer
The Wall Street Journal23d agoneutral
📊 Hot Bond Yield Summer

Think Treasurys are having a rough summer? It's even uglier abroad. Countries with large debt burdens—France, Italy, the U.K., Japan—have come under the heaviest pressure in recent months. The forces fueling the overseas rout include renewed inflation fears, fiscal woes in France, pressure on the Japanese yen and budget worries in the U.

Bond Selloff Resumes After July Inflation Data
Barrons.com24d agobearish
Bond Selloff Resumes After July Inflation Data

The Fed’s closely-watched inflation gauge revealed prices were a bit higher than expected in July--bond traders don't like that. After taking a breather on Tuesday, bonds are selling off yet again. Yield were up across the board on Wednesday morning; both the 2-year and 10-year yield were up by around 0.

Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Futures Fall
Barrons.com25d agobearish
Treasury Yields Slip as Oil Futures Fall

Treasury yields fall alongside oil prices as the U.S. increases sanctions on Iran. Crude futures fall 3% and Brent trades below $90. The WSJ Dollar Index gives away overnight gains and is flat, while Bitcoin briefly jumps above $80,000, amid growing concerns that Washington will tolerate high inflation and expanding fiscal deficits.

Bond Yields and Retail Earnings Send Market Reeling
Barrons.com29d agoneutral
Bond Yields and Retail Earnings Send Market Reeling

A broad stock market slide followed a snap-back in yields. So much for that bond market rebound. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 698 points, or 1.3%. The S&P 500 dropped 0.9%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1%.

Bessent Signals Treasury Has ‘Big Toolkit’ to Bring Down Yields
The Wall Street Journal29d agoneutral
Bessent Signals Treasury Has ‘Big Toolkit’ to Bring Down Yields

Treasury yields are choppy after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that upcoming buybacks of longer-term bonds could be more than $4 billion per operation. Appearing on CNBC a day after the Treasury announced that it would increase buybacks of longer-term bonds, Bessent said the government has “a big toolkit” to bring down yields, which he said don’t currently reflect economic fundamentals. Treasury yields initially fell after Bessent started speaking but then retracted that move.

Q: Will Bessent’s Intervention Work?
The Wall Street Journal30d agoneutral
Q: Will Bessent’s Intervention Work?

A: Analysts say that buying back more government bonds could mute the march higher in longer-term yields. At Dutch bank ING, Padhraic Garvey says "the Treasury could double the long tenor buyback sizes again, and again if needed". At Japanese bank MUFG, analysts say "the US Treasury could play a key role here by of course addressing the ever-expending fiscal deficit...We all know that’s not going to happen."

Bond Yields Drop After Treasury Says It Will Increase Buybacks
The Wall Street Journal31d agoneutral
Bond Yields Drop After Treasury Says It Will Increase Buybacks

Treasury yields are down sharply after the Treasury Department said it would at least double the size of its buyback operations for longer-term notes and bonds. Treasury's buyback operations are meant to improve liquidity in the bond market by reducing the amount of older securities. Treasury's website states that the agency "does not currently intend to use buyback operations to mitigate episodes of acute market stress."

Nasdaq Tumbles as Chip Stocks Hit a Wall
Barrons.com31d agobearish
Nasdaq Tumbles as Chip Stocks Hit a Wall

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 116 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%. A majority of Dow stocks actually closed higher, but shares of firms linked to the artificial intelligence trade weighed down the index.

Treasury Yields, Dollar Fall as Data Support Fed Hold
Barrons.com36d agobearish
Treasury Yields, Dollar Fall as Data Support Fed Hold

Treasury yields are on pace for a weekly decline following signs of cooling inflation that bolster odds of a Fed hold, not hike, next month. Oil prices edge higher as the supply chain remains choked in the Middle East and the White House threatens Iran with more economic isolation.

Nasdaq Rallies After In-Line Inflation Report
Barrons.com38d agobullish
Nasdaq Rallies After In-Line Inflation Report

Stocks were rallying out of the gate on Wednesday after Wall Street shrugged off the latest inflation report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 101 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.

Rising Oil Prices Pressure Bond Market Again
The Wall Street Journal39d agoneutral
Rising Oil Prices Pressure Bond Market Again

Higher energy prices are reigniting inflation concerns, pushing global government bond yields upward. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.729% this morning, according to Tradeweb, within striking of its year-to-date closing peak of 4.

Treasury Yields Rise as Wall Street Expects Stable Inflation Data
Barrons.com40d agoneutral
Treasury Yields Rise as Wall Street Expects Stable Inflation Data

Treasury yields rise ahead of U.S. inflation data due later this week and following July's unexpected negative payroll numbers. Iran makes tough demands to reopen Hormuz, pushing oil futures up 1.5%. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect July's 12-month CPI inflation to cool slightly to 3.

Traders Scale Back Bets on Rate Hike
The Wall Street Journal43d agoneutral
Traders Scale Back Bets on Rate Hike

Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report has flipped the market-based odds of whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rate in September. Interest-rate futures now show a 56% chance that the Fed stays on hold at its next meeting and a 44% chance of a rate hike, according to CME Group data.