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Baker Hughes Company
Energy · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Structural: IET orders are the read-through to global LNG capacity build-out - Baker Hughes is one of two credible turbomachinery suppliers (vs Siemens Energy) for LNG liquefaction trains, with multi-year visible backlog from QatarEnergy NFE/NFS, US Gulf Coast greenfields (Plaquemines, Rio Grande, Port Arthur Ph2) and Mozambique restart.
Gas turbine + compressor content per LNG train is ~$500M-$1B, multi-year revenue recognition. Secondary tailwind: data-center power (NovaLT gas turbines for behind-the-meter generation) and decarbonization tech (CCUS compression, hydrogen-ready turbines).
(1) IET RPO at record level, multi-year revenue visibility independent of oil price; (2) LNG FID cycle 2024-2026 locks in 2027-2030 turbomachinery shipments; (3) OFSE margins expanding via service-mix shift + international exposure (less US shale beta); (4) data-center gas-gen optionality is free call; (5) capital return discipline - buybacks + dividend growth post spinoff cleanup.
(1) LNG project deferrals or cancellations if gas prices collapse or permitting blocks (US LNG pause precedent); (2) OFSE remains cyclical - North America rig count + Saudi capex cuts hit revenue; (3) execution risk on large IET contracts (cost overruns, schedule slippage historically hit margins); (4) Siemens Energy competition in turbines; (5) energy-transition narrative reversal could compress multiple vs pure-play renewables.
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