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Kosmos Energy Ltd.
Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
STRUCTURAL: Deepwater pure-play levered to Tortue LNG ramp + Jubilee infill, with capex peak behind it (2024-25 was the heavy spend year). Production mix shifting from oil-only to oil + LNG as Tortue Phase 1 reaches plateau, diversifying realizations away from Brent-only exposure.
- Tortue Phase 1 first cargoes achieved, ramp to ~2.7 mtpa plateau de-risks the largest single project in the portfolio
- FCF inflection: capex falls ~40% post-2025 as Tortue/Jubilee SE complete, opening buyback/deleveraging window
- Jubilee 3D seismic + infill drilling adds low-cost reserves at existing FPSO
- Net debt/EBITDAX trends down sharply if Brent holds $70+ and Tortue runs at plateau
- Equity trades at low-single-digit EV/FCF on 2027 strip vs E&P peers at mid-to-high single
- Highly levered (~$2.7B net debt) - any Brent breakdown below $65 reopens covenant + refi risk
- Tortue ramp execution risk; Phase 2 FID has slipped multiple times
- Ghana fiscal terms + political/election risk on largest producing asset
- Deepwater = high decline rates; without continuous infill, base production falls fast
- No dividend, no buyback yet - capital return is thesis-dependent on debt paydown first