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PBF Energy Inc.
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Structural: pure-play merchant refiner - no E&P, no retail - so equity is a levered call on crack spreads, RIN costs and turnaround calendars. Six-refinery footprint spans all 5 PADDs which smooths regional crack volatility but concentrates regulatory risk in California (Martinez + Torrance = ~30% of capacity, both under CARB low-carbon fuel + cap-and-trade).
Martinez Feb 2025 hydrocracker fire took the 156kbpd plant offline for most of 2025; partial restart Q4 2025, full ramp through 1H 2026 is the dominant near-term P&L variable.
(1) Martinez full restart unlocks ~$400-600M annualized EBITDA at mid-cycle cracks. (2) West Coast cracks structurally tight as PADD 5 refining capacity exits (Phillips 66 Wilmington, Valero Benicia announced shutdowns) - survivors capture rent.
(3) Net cash balance sheet post-PBFX take-private gives capacity to repurchase >10% of float at distressed multiples. (4) SBR renewable-diesel JV ramping to 16k bpd hedges some regulatory carbon cost. (5) Trades at low single-digit mid-cycle EV/EBITDA when peers $VLO $MPC $DK $PARR rerate.
(1) No upstream hedge - 2020-style demand shock or crack collapse goes straight to FCF. (2) California regulatory ratchet (cap-and-trade Q4 2025 reform, ABX2-1 minimum-margin law) compresses West Coast structural margin. (3) Martinez restart timeline has slipped twice; further slip = covenant + dividend pressure.
(4) Renewable-diesel economics broken - LCFS credits at multi-year lows, BTC uncertainty post-IRA. (5) Six-refinery turnaround calendar means at least one major asset down at all times - opex inflation hits harder than larger peers.
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