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QUALCOMM Incorporated
Information Technology · Semiconductors
Structural read: handset SoC incumbent with a royalty annuity ($QTL ~70%+ margin) bolted onto a cyclical chip business. Diversification thesis hinges on Auto + PC + IoT replacing Apple modem revenue (in-house C1 modem ramp underway, Qualcomm guides full $AAPL roll-off by 2027 design-ins).
Snapdragon X Elite/Plus is the first credible ARM-on-Windows push; share depends on Microsoft Copilot+ traction vs $INTC Lunar Lake / $AMD Strix.
- Auto QCT revenue compounding ~35%+ YoY off $45B+ design-win pipeline (digital cockpit + Snapdragon Ride ADAS)
- QTL royalty stream priced as annuity - most 5G/6G handsets pay regardless of SoC vendor
- Snapdragon 8 Gen 3/Elite locks premium Android (Samsung Galaxy S series, Xiaomi, OnePlus)
- Edge AI on-device inference (Snapdragon NPU) positions for AI smartphone refresh cycle
- Trades at meaningful discount to semis cohort on forward P/E
- $AAPL in-house modem ramp removes ~20% of QCT revenue by FY27 (mgmt-guided)
- Handset TAM mature, premium Android share gains hit ceiling vs MediaTek at low end
- Snapdragon X PC adoption slow - Copilot+ PCs <5% of Q1 PC shipments
- China handset exposure (~60% of QCT) leaves revenue hostage to Huawei resurgence + export controls
- Auto pipeline is multi-year recognition - revenue lags design wins by 2-4 years
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