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T-Mobile US, Inc.
Communication Services · Wireless Telecommunication Services
5GHz mid-band, now monetizing the lead via FWA (~6M+ subs run-rate) + premium plan mix-up + bundled fiber via Lumos/Metronet JVs. UScellular wireless-asset close adds ~4M postpaid subs + spectrum infill in rural footprints $VZ + $T historically dominated.
- Postpaid phone net-add share still leading $VZ + $T despite slowing industry growth
- 5G FWA = incremental ARPU on already-built mid-band - capex-light cable disruption
- UScellular close + Lumos/Metronet fiber pivot converts TMUS from pure-wireless to converged carrier without telco-scale capex burden
- Buyback + dividend ramp post-merger synergy phase; FCF inflection plays out through 2027
- US wireless TAM saturated - net adds increasingly come from $VZ + $T churn, not new subs
- Cable MVNO ($CMCSA + $CHTR) keeps gnawing at the low end; FWA growth caps when mid-band fills
- Fiber JV strategy capital-light but slow vs $VZ Frontier deal - competitive bundle response not immediate
- Spectrum auction pause + FCC uncertainty leaves long-dated capacity story exposed
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