UBER

Structural read: Uber has transitioned from cash-burning growth story to GAAP-profitable platform - FY24 free cash flow positive, ~$6B annualized FCF run-rate, S&P 500 inclusion done. Mobility take-rates have stabilized in the high-20s, Delivery is profitable in most major markets, and Uber One (membership) reduces churn at the household level.

The optionality leg is autonomous: Uber is positioning as the neutral demand aggregator across competing AV stacks rather than building its own - Waymo expansion in Phoenix/Austin/Atlanta, $TSLA robotaxi partnership framing, and multiple smaller AV operators all route through the Uber app.

Bull bullets:

- ~$6B annualized FCF, net cash balance sheet, buyback authorization active

- Ads business at multi-billion annualized run-rate, gross-margin accretive

- Uber One members convert at meaningfully higher frequency than non-members

- AV partnerships with $GOOG Waymo, $TSLA, and others - demand-aggregation moat

- Mobility gross bookings still compounding mid-teens in mature US/EU markets

Bear bullets:

- AV thesis cuts both ways - if Waymo/$TSLA build their own consumer apps at scale, Uber loses the rider

- Insurance costs in the US continue to compress mobility take-rate

- Delivery is a commodity layer where DoorDash holds US share lead

- Regulatory overhang on driver classification (CA AB5, EU Platform Work Directive)

- Multiple compression risk if AV optionality narrative breaks