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Although Wall Street is sitting at fresh record highs, with the benchmark S&P 500 up 8% year to date and the technology-packed NASDAQ Composite riding a relentless AI capex wave, the bond market is telling a very different story this week. Per CME FedWatch as of late Monday, market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate ... Rate Cut Odds Just Collapsed to 5%. History Says This Is When Record Highs Get Tested.