RGTI

Superconducting quantum hardware (Cepheus-1-108Q flagship, Ankaa-3, Novera benchtop) sold via QCaaS + Rigetti Foundry to US gov + national labs. Q1 2026 (5/11) rev beat sold off on CEO pivot from qubit-count milestones to fidelity messaging. $443M cash from Q2 2025 raise funds ~5.7y burn; $6.4B mcap on $7M TTM rev.

• •2025-10-14 — Cycle peak $58.15 intraday; -78.5% drawdown to $12.53 by 2026-03-30. Distribution day 2025-10-16 (-14.9% on 139M vol).
• •2025-Q2 — $381.7M equity raise; priced into the run-up before the Oct top. Q4 2025 shares 331.3M (+1.8% QoQ).
• •2026-05-11 — Q1 2026 print: revenue beat, stock traded down. Barron's 5/12 framing: "flashy milestones are out, performance is in" — CEO pivoting messaging from qubit-count to error-rate/fidelity.
• •2026-05-13 — Cepheus-1-108Q (108-qubit superconducting) launched; replaces 84-qubit Ankaa-3 + 36-qubit Cepheus-1.
• •Snapshot 2026-05-14: price ~$19.30, mcap ~$6.44B, TTM rev ~$7.1M (P/S ~838x), fwd P/E negative, cash $443.5M, debt $7.2M, FCF burn -$77M/yr → ~5.7y runway. Short float 15.23%, beta 1.80, avg vol 28.7M.
• •Setup tension: validated Quantum bubble (0.76 residualized, strongest co-mover) supports thematic exposure; IONQ leading peer race on revenue + backlog + enterprise adoption per Q1 2026. RGTI: better physics depth, weaker commercialization.
• •Bubble-cycle history: Cycle 1 (Willow-driven, Dec 2024 / Jan 2025) ~7x; Cycle 2 (Oct 2025) ~4x. Each ended on dilution into the top + reversion to pre-revenue math.