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The Boeing Company
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Western large-commercial-aircraft duopoly with $AIR; structural demand from a ~20-year global fleet replacement cycle (~40k aircraft) anchors the backlog at >$500B. Near-term equity story is a cash-flow recovery: 737 MAX rate ramp (FAA-capped at 38/mo post Jan-2026 door-plug incident, path to 42 then 47 unlocks ~$10B+ FCF), 787 stabilization at 7/mo, 777X EIS in 2026, and BDS fixed-price loss-program burn-down (KC-46, T-7A, VC-25B, MQ-25, Starliner).
- Duopoly pricing power vs $AIR; backlog of ~5,500 commercial aircraft (~7 years of production)
- 737 MAX rate cap is a binary unlock - each 5/mo step adds material FCF
- BGS services is high-margin (mid-teens) recurring aftermarket on a ~10k-aircraft installed base
- Defense tailwind from FY26 DoD budget + allied F-15EX, P-8, AH-64, CH-47 orders
- Reabsorbed Spirit AeroSystems removes a chronic 737/787 quality + supply-chain risk
- ~$54B net debt + investment-grade rating on watch; equity is residual claim after bondholders
- FAA + DoJ overhang from MAX criminal settlement and ongoing production-quality consent
- BDS fixed-price programs have absorbed >$10B in cumulative charges; next charge always plausible
- Spirit reabsorption adds execution + integration cost through 2026
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