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CAVA Group, Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Restaurants
6M AUV, ~25% restaurant-level margin at maturity). 100% company-owned model means every comp and new opening flows through consolidated P&L without franchise-fee dilution. CPG arm (dips/spreads in ~12k grocery doors) is an underwritten brand-extension call option absent at $CMG and $WING.
same-store sales leadership in restaurants (multi-quarter double-digit SSS prints leading $CMG, $SG, $WING); long runway from ~360 to a stated 1,000+ US unit target by 2032 (~15% unit growth annualized); Zoes conversion drag finished - comp base is now clean; CPG growth and loyalty program ramping; founder-led with disciplined capital allocation (no buybacks, no dividend, reinvestment-only).
restaurant multiples compress fast on any SSS deceleration - stock trades at premium EV/sales to $CMG/$WING and discounts any miss aggressively; consumer wallet pressure on $13+ check casual; labor and food cost inflation re-emerging; unit-growth math requires sustained new-unit AUV - early-2024 cohort AUV is the leading indicator to watch; insider/sponsor lockup expirations periodically pressure float.
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