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DraftKings Inc.
Consumer Discretionary · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
DKNG is the duopoly #2 in US online sports betting (~28% OSB GGR share behind $FLUT FanDuel's ~37%) and #2 in US iGaming (~24% share behind $FLUT). The structural read: state-by-state OSB legalization is roughly two-thirds done by population; the next legs (TX, CA, FL) are slow but iGaming legalization (currently 7 states, ~25% of US pop) is the higher-margin TAM unlock.
Profitability inflection in play - first full-year positive adj EBITDA in 2024, hold rates structurally rising as parlay mix grows, promo intensity normalizing as the customer-acquisition war with $FLUT cools.
- Duopoly economics - $DKNG + $FLUT = ~65% OSB share; CAC declining as new-state launches slow
- iGaming mix shift - 5x OSB take rate; every new iGaming state is high-margin GGR
- Parlay/SGP hold expansion - structurally lifts revenue per handle dollar without promo
- Jackpocket cross-sell - lottery courier feeds OSB top of funnel at low CAC
- Operating leverage - fixed tech/marketing base now flexing on growing revenue
- State tax hike contagion - Illinois per-bet tax precedent; NY at 51% GGR; margin compression risk
- Prediction-market arbitrage - $KALSHI/Polymarket sports contracts skirt state taxes/licensing
- iGaming legalization stall - NY/CA hostile; no new state since RI in 2024
- Promo war re-ignition if $FLUT or new entrant (ESPN BET / Fanatics) pushes share grab
- Hold-rate normalization - Q4 customer-friendly outcomes show GGR variance is real
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