EADSY

STRUCTURAL: Half of the global narrowbody duopoly with $BA, but the healthy half. A320neo family backlog ~8,600 units (≈10 yrs production), A321XLR entered service 2024 opening up thin long-haul routes Boeing cannot serve until a clean-sheet MoM/NMA arrives (2030+).

A350 is the only in-production widebody with no open quality FAA cap. Defense leg (Eurofighter, A400M, FCAS) is a direct beneficiary of EU rearmament; ~5% of EU NATO GDP commitments flow through European primes preferentially.

- $BA structural impairment: 737 MAX still capped at 38/mo, 787 door-plug overhang, machinist strike - every $BA slip is an Airbus order win

- A321XLR is the only certified single-aisle XLR; opens TATL routes for low-cost carriers, no Boeing competitor before 2030+

- Backlog ~10 yrs of production = pricing power on every renegotiation and slot allocation

- EU defense rearmament (Eurofighter Tranche 5, FCAS, A400M restart talks)

- Helicopter cycle bottoming; H160/H175 winning offshore + EMS replacement waves