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The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Financials · Investment Banking & Brokerage
Bellwether for capital-markets reopening + AI-capex financing leg. Investment Banking backlog has rebuilt off the 2022-2023 trough; FICC + Equities benefit from elevated rates volatility and hyperscaler/neocloud debt issuance. AWM fee streams now ~$10B+ annualized and growing - the strategic pivot away from consumer (Apple Card unwind, GreenSky sold) is freeing ROE.
Trades at premium book multiple to $MS, $JPM, $C peers on Markets dominance + AWM re-rating.
- M&A + ECM cycle inflecting; GS #1 in announced-deal league tables every year since 2002
- Every hyperscaler bond deal, neocloud credit line, AI-infra IPO routes through GS underwriting - direct AI-capex beneficiary
- AWM fee-based revenue scaling toward $20B by 2027 mgmt target; smooths cyclical Markets earnings
- Platform Solutions losses narrowing as consumer experiment winds down - pure capital release to buybacks
- FICC franchise structurally widened post-Credit Suisse exit; share gains durable
- Earnings still ~60% capital-markets-cyclical; one quarter of dead IPO pipeline reprices the whole multiple
- Regulatory capital (Basel III endgame) could lock up $20B+ of buyback capacity
- AWM alternatives fundraising slowed in 2024-2025 cohort; carry realizations pushed right
- $MS wealth franchise is structurally fee-heavier and trades at premium - GS Markets premium can compress
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