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Klarna Group plc
Financials · Consumer Finance
STRUCTURAL: BNPL rails are displacing revolving credit at checkout; Klarna's 575k+ merchant network creates a two-sided moat - more merchants attract consumers, and 50M MAUs attract merchants. $AFRM, $PYPL, $MA, $V compete on adjacent rails but Klarna owns the origination moment in European e-commerce.
(1) US expansion is early-innings - NYSE IPO July 2025 raises brand awareness and balance-sheet firepower. (2) AI-driven credit underwriting lowers loss rates below card issuers. (3) Physical Klarna Card converts BNPL users into daily-spend relationships, lifting LTV.
(4) Merchant data flywheel enables advertising/affiliate revenue stream with near-zero marginal cost. (5) European regulatory moat: PSD2 open-banking compliance is already baked in, raising barriers for US-only competitors.
(1) Rising interest rates compress BNPL unit economics - cost of funds now rivals the 0% promotional yield. (2) Charge-off risk spikes in consumer downturns; Klarna has no deposit base to buffer funding costs. (3) $AFRM and bank-issued BNPL (Chase, Citi) are deepening US merchant relationships.
(4) Regulatory tightening in EU/UK on BNPL products could mandate affordability checks that raise origination friction. (5) IPO valuation ~$15B implies significant growth already priced in relative to $6B private valuation trough in 2022.
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