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Lockheed Martin Corporation
Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Structural read: $LMT is the F-35 monopoly prime (~40% of group revenue, multi-decade sustainment tail) layered on PAC-3/THAAD/HIMARS missile demand and a Space segment leveraged to Golden Dome / NGI / Orion. 8% yield. Q1 2026 Aeronautics margin compression on F-35 Lot 18-19 fixed-price overruns is the active overhang.
- F-35 backlog of ~2,400 jets through 2049 - sustainment revenue is the durable annuity, not unit production
- Missiles & Fire Control book-to-bill >1.4x on PAC-3/HIMARS Ukraine replenishment + Saudi/Polish FMS
- Golden Dome architecture pivots NGI + L3Harris HBTSS work into a multi-decade Space tailwind
- $176B backlog + 100%+ FCF conversion fund $4B+ annual buybacks at low-to-mid teens FCF yield
- Allied defense spend (NATO 3% floor, Japan/Korea doubling) widens FMS pipeline regardless of US budget
- F-35 fixed-price overruns + TR-3 software delays compressed Aeronautics margin to ~9.5% (vs ~10.5% historical)
- Sentinel (NGAD competitor) and B-21 sustainment go to $NOC, not LMT - next-gen air dominance share is uncertain
- DOGE / continuing-resolution risk on FY27 defense topline; F-35 unit cuts in any CR scenario
- Space segment lumpy: classified program timing + Orion Artemis schedule drives quarterly variance
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