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Nu Holdings Ltd.
Financials · Diversified Banks
Structural: digital-only banking model with cost-to-serve roughly 85% below incumbent Brazilian banks ($ITUB, $BBD, $BSBR); ~60% adult-Brazilian penetration; ARPAC compounding as customers move from credit card to deposits to lending to investments.
Mexico/Colombia replicating the Brazil playbook with deposit growth as the leading indicator. B remains a holder (anchor signal of underwriting credibility).
- Brazil ARPAC still under $12/mo vs incumbents $35-45 - multi-year cross-sell runway
- Mexico deposit base scaling fast; cohort economics tracking Brazil years 2-3
- Operating leverage: each new customer ~$0 incremental cost vs branch banks
- Credit-card NIM resilient through Selic cycles via secured lending mix shift
- Buffett ownership = institutional credibility signal in EM fintech
- Brazilian credit cycle: NPL formation sensitive to Selic + unemployment; FGTS-anchor consumer fragile
- Mexico/Colombia burn drag on consolidated margin for 2-3 more years
- BRL/USD translation risk - reports in USD, earns in BRL
- Regulatory: Brazilian central bank Pix dominance + open finance compress interchange long-term
- Competition intensifying: $MELI (Mercado Pago), Inter ($INBS-equiv), incumbent digital arms
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